安永料中美磨擦等仍为内银带来不确定性 下半年不良贷款方面仍受压
安永发表「中国上市银行2021年第一季度业绩分析、2020年回顾及未来展望」，指出去年尽管面对宏观经济挑战，内银净利仍达1.76万亿元人民币(下同)，按年微升0.1%，而今年首季38家已公布数据的上市内银净利按年增长4.55%，增长较去年同期收窄0.49个百分点。
经营收入方面，去年上市内银整体按年增4.93%至5.57万亿元，而今年首季38家上市内银的经营收入则按年升3.73%至1.47万亿元。另外，去年内银平均净息差为2.15%水平，较2019年收窄8个基点，主要因为LPR较低以及需要向实体经济让利的影响。
安永指出去年内银净费用及佣金收入达8,086亿元，按年增长6.69%，相信2020年回复增长主要受惠於财富管理子公司发展加快，以及疫情下网络银行业务快速增长。单计今年首季，38家内银的净费用及佣金收入则达2,559亿元，按年增长11.04%。
在资产架构方面，去年上市银行贷款增加以支持实体经济，令信贷资产占整体资产比例有所提升，而在政策指引下，料上市银行将继续增加无抵押贷款的比例。在资产质素层面，截至去年底上市内银的不良贷款余额达1.83万亿元，较2019年末增加2,411亿元，不过不良贷款比率仅微升0.03个百分点至1.5%，截至3月底38家上市内银的加权平均不良贷款比率已回落至1.43%，安永认为上市银行有采取风控措施令资产质素维持稳定。
针对下半年的风险，安永亚太区金融服务审计主管合夥人蔡监昌指出随着疫苗普及、疫情有望受控，相信未来疫情未必会常态化，惟中美磨擦及地缘政治等仍会为银行业带来不确定性，相信仍需关注信用及市场风险。另一方面近年数字化应用逐步展开，认为对客户隐私、数据安全要求亦有所提升，假如银行处理不当或会承受风险。此外他亦认为需注意监管风险，考虑到监管机构针对互联网银行、房地产贷款等的措施相应出台，加上对消费者权益保护的关注亦有提升，故认为银行要作出投资及风险管理等。
在未来不良贷款表现方面，安永华南区金融服务主管合夥人张秉贤认为过去一年有支持实体经济及企业复工复产的政策，认为需留意2021年或之後企业能否回後至疫情前水平及盈利能力，相估未来仍存在很多不确定因素，故下半年银行业在不良贷款方面相信仍有压力。
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