《大行報告》大和降信義光能(00968.HK)評級至「持有」 目標價下調至11.5元
大和發表的研究報告指,經歷3月尾降價30%後,認為光伏玻璃價格將再面對12-15%的跌幅,主要因為供應過盛等,估計玻璃庫存在第三季需求旺季前將持續增加,同時有機會降價,料信義光能(00968.HK)於2021-22年的產能增長將慢於福萊特玻璃(06865.HK)。
該行指出隨著光伏玻璃供應釋放,加上受多晶矽成本上升影響,模組需求下跌,光伏玻璃庫存水平有所提升,一線廠商庫存天數約為10天,而二、三線廠商則為兩星期。3月尾玻璃價格下調30%至每平方米28元人民幣,福萊特玻璃目標將價格進一步降12-15%至每平方米22-23元人民幣,該行認為減價有助刺激模組需求,並支持今年整體太陽能安裝。據該行的渠道調查,信義光能確認公司會降價至每平方米23元人民幣,與福萊特玻璃一致,該行將公司2021年平均銷售單價預測由每平方米31元人民幣降至26元人民幣,以反映相關轉變,估計今年公司毛利率將跌14個百分點至35%,同時估計在第三季尾前有機會進一步降價至每平方米20元人民幣。
該行將公司2021-22年盈利預測降7-10%,以反映對光伏玻璃平均銷售單價預測下調,不過部分被生產規模等因素抵銷,目標價由14.5元降至11.5元,評級由「跑贏大市」降至「持有」。(el/u) ~
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