《季績前瞻》券商料匯控(00005.HK)首季列帳基準稅前利潤升近4% 關注淨息差及重組步伐
匯豐控股(00005.HK.HK)將於下周二(27日)公布今年首季度業績，市場料受淨利息收窄拖累下，令期內淨利息收入下滑，但料環球銀行及資本市場部門(GBM)及財富管理業務表現理想，可抵銷相關影響。本網綜合3間券商近日發表報告所作的預測，料匯控2021年首季列帳基準除稅前利潤料介乎26.49億至36.93億美元，較2020年首季32.29億美元，按年下跌18%至上升14.4%。而美銀證券引述市場同業對匯控今年首季列帳基準除稅前利潤預測為33.47億美元(按年升3.7%)。
市場將關注匯控首季按季淨息差及淨利息收入表現，與及普通股權一級比率和經營開支等數據。該行亦指，縱使首季本港銀行同業拆息下跌，但資產增長應為淨利息收入帶來輕微上行壓力。此外，美銀證券指近期有報道指匯控擬出售法國零售銀行業務，若一旦落實會對損益表將造成較大損失，構成潛在影響未來業績的因素。
【料淨利息收入降 估財管業務理想】
高盛預期匯控今年首季列帳基準除稅前利潤按年跌18%至26.49億美元，經調整除稅前利潤按年升37.7%至41.89億美元，經調整收入按年跌4.7%至126.6億美元。該行認為匯控首季業績有兩項業務上升因素，包括資本市場相關批發銀行收益，與及零售銀行財富管理業務，並料其首季有形股本回報率為3.3%。該行估計股票市場方面今年良好開端，或可反映在匯控旗下零售銀行理財業務收入增長表現。
券商中最樂觀為美銀證券，該行預料匯控首季列帳基準除稅前利潤按年升14.4%至36.93億美元，指預測較市場同業高出一成。該行指出，近期有報道指匯控擬出售法國零售銀行業務，若落實會對損益表將造成較大損失，但該行對其預測未有反映相關因素，構成潛在影響未來業績的因素。
該行指，匯控存款基礎強勁及持有大量短期美債，使匯控對利率特別敏感，今年首季利率見底短期拖累匯控，但長期利率急速改善仍未在短期利率上反映。美銀證券引述市場同業對匯控今年首季列帳基準除稅前利潤預測為33.47億美元(按年升3.7%)、估計淨利息收入錄65.28億美元按年跌14.2%、料總體收入126.17億美元、料列賬基準預期信貸損失及其他信貸減值準備按年跌64%至10.84億美元。
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本網綜合3間券商近日發表報告所作的預測，料匯控2021年首季列帳基準除稅前利潤料介乎26.49億至36.93億美元，較2020年首季32.29億美元，按年下跌18%至上升14.4%。
券商│今年首季列帳基準除稅前利潤預測│按年變幅
美銀證券│36.93億美元│+14.4%
摩根士丹利│33.78億美元│+4.6%
高盛│26.49億美元│-18%
按匯控2020年首季列帳基準除稅前利潤32.29億美元計算。
(fc/w)
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