华西证券：给予中汇集团(0382.HK)买入评级，目标价12.9港元
华西证券22日发布研报称，中汇集团(0382.HK)四川学校并表、看好转设后招生恢复，给予其买入评级，目标价12.9港元。
主要内容如下：
事件概述：公司FY2021H1营收/经调整净利同比增长32.5%
FY2020H1集团营收同比增长32.5%至5.54亿元、在校生人数同比增长76.8%至6.24万人，经调整净利同比增长32.5%至2.00亿元、经调整净利率同比持平为36.1%，其中集团毛利率同比提升1.2PCT至50.0%、销售费用率同比提升0.11PCT至1.13%、管理/财务费用率同比下降0.39/0.94PCT至13.82%/1.92%。集团拟派发中期每股股息5.5 港仙，分红比率为30%。
分析判断: 内生稳健增长，新并表四川学校看好后续成长
老学校持续稳健增长：广东学校合计收入同比增长17%至4.83亿元，（1）人数方面，截至 FY2021H1华商学院/华商职业学院在校生人数同比增长3.7%/25%至2.50/1.33万人，此外海外学校及职业教育人数同比增长605.3%至3731人；（2）学费方面，华商学院/职业学院平均学费同比上涨9.6%/5.1%至26,661/16,361元。
新并表四川学校贡献增量：四川学校2021年1月开始并表并贡献收入0.44 亿元。（1）人数方面，截至FY2021H1城市职业/技师学院在校生人数1.42/0.61万人，相较3.5万人的总容量其利用率提升空间大；（2）学费方面，城市职业/技师学院平均学费 13,430/9,901 元，随着四川放开民办高校自主定价其提价空间大。
广州财经大学华商学院转设完成：2020年12月转设完成后，公司向广东财经大学支付的学籍管理费也将 自2022财年开始减少约3,400万元，直至2025财年共节约1.5亿元。
积极推进校区建设：华商职业学院新会校区一期占地683亩，预计于2021年9月投入使用、可至少容纳学生人数2万；此外，华商学院四会校区二期234亩土地已于2020年10月获得。
投资建议：
（1）预计华商学院每年增长3000人左右，学费每两年提升10%；
（2）预计华商职业学院每年增长2000人左右；
（3）转设落地后节省品牌管理费，带动毛利率提升。
维持集团 FY2021/22/23 营收12.5/15.4/17.9亿元，净利4.6/5.8/7.3亿元，对应PE分别为17/13/10X；维持“买入”评级，维持目标价12.9港元（对应 FY2022PE20X，汇率1港元兑 0.84元）。
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