華西證券：給予中彙集團(0382.HK)買入評級，目標價12.9港元
華西證券22日發佈研報稱，中彙集團(0382.HK)四川學校並表、看好轉設後招生恢復，給予其買入評級，目標價12.9港元。
主要內容如下：
事件概述：公司FY2021H1營收/經調整淨利同比增長32.5%
FY2020H1集團營收同比增長32.5%至5.54億元、在校生人數同比增長76.8%至6.24萬人，經調整淨利同比增長32.5%至2.00億元、經調整淨利率同比持平為36.1%，其中集團毛利率同比提升1.2PCT至50.0%、銷售費用率同比提升0.11PCT至1.13%、管理/財務費用率同比下降0.39/0.94PCT至13.82%/1.92%。集團擬派發中期每股股息5.5 港仙，分紅比率為30%。
分析判斷: 內生穩健增長，新並表四川學校看好後續成長
老學校持續穩健增長：廣東學校合計收入同比增長17%至4.83億元，（1）人數方面，截至 FY2021H1華商學院/華商職業學院在校生人數同比增長3.7%/25%至2.50/1.33萬人，此外海外學校及職業教育人數同比增長605.3%至3731人；（2）學費方面，華商學院/職業學院平均學費同比上漲9.6%/5.1%至26,661/16,361元。
新並表四川學校貢獻增量：四川學校2021年1月開始並表並貢獻收入0.44 億元。（1）人數方面，截至FY2021H1城市職業/技師學院在校生人數1.42/0.61萬人，相較3.5萬人的總容量其利用率提升空間大；（2）學費方面，城市職業/技師學院平均學費 13,430/9,901 元，隨着四川放開民辦高校自主定價其提價空間大。
廣州財經大學華商學院轉設完成：2020年12月轉設完成後，公司向廣東財經大學支付的學籍管理費也將 自2022財年開始減少約3,400萬元，直至2025財年共節約1.5億元。
積極推進校區建設：華商職業學院新會校區一期佔地683畝，預計於2021年9月投入使用、可至少容納學生人數2萬；此外，華商學院四會校區二期234畝土地已於2020年10月獲得。
投資建議：
（1）預計華商學院每年增長3000人左右，學費每兩年提升10%；
（2）預計華商職業學院每年增長2000人左右；
（3）轉設落地後節省品牌管理費，帶動毛利率提升。
維持集團 FY2021/22/23 營收12.5/15.4/17.9億元，淨利4.6/5.8/7.3億元，對應PE分別為17/13/10X；維持“買入”評級，維持目標價12.9港元（對應 FY2022PE20X，匯率1港元兑 0.84元）。
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