植耀辉: 热炒五一概念股 浅谈呷哺呷哺(00520.HK)
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，近期投资者已开始炒作「五一」概念，不少旅游相关以至内需板块均见炒作。不过呷哺呷哺(00520.HK)周一(19日)却一度重挫21%，事缘其旗下凑凑餐饮CEO张振纬离职，有大行亦因此下调其目标价，引发投资者担忧集团前景。以往一旦有高管离职，投资者对公司信心难免会有所动摇，何况今次离职的是一向被视为拥有高执行力之张振纬，所以股价出现反应亦正常；不过他离职似乎是与个人有其他业务发展有关，加上有大行亦似集团或已有人选安排，所以某程度上影响通常仅属短暂，但以今次股价大跌之程度，则确实有点夸张。
至於是否与高盛下调目标价有关，则笔者亦有再作跟进。其实高盛本身颇看好呷哺呷哺前景，於去年12月才上调其目标价，不过当时看好之主因，就是预期凑凑餐饮将成为呷哺呷哺强劲增长点。事实上，凑凑餐饮去年占呷哺呷哺总收入达31%，管理层原先亦预期2021年将开设70家新店，但首季凑凑餐饮只新增3间分店，要达成全年目标似乎有相当难度，高盛亦因此将新店数目有所下调，只是仍难解释当日为何股价大跌。所以未来数个交易日之走势相当关键。执笔之时(4月20日)其股价已见反弹，初步可视为市场或已消化高管离职之影响。
只是不论是呷哺呷哺抑或凑凑，未来发展仍相当具挑战。去年全国餐饮收入3.9万亿元人民币，同比下跌16.6%，主要受疫情影响，不少龙头餐饮公司亦趁机扩张市场份额，当中便包括呷哺呷哺及海底捞(06862.HK)。不过呷哺呷哺现时在全国只得一家中央厨房，在供应链上不算完善，亦限制了其扩张步伐；相比之下海底捞凭姊妹公司的关系(由颐海(01579.HK)提供火锅底料，蜀海负责中央厨房，蜀韵东方则负责装修工程)，业务扩张迅速之余亦能得到配合，发展上似乎亦可看高一线，只是估值高昂令投资者却步，而且正如上文提到，餐饮市场竞争相当激烈，所以即使炒作「五一」因素亦只宜小注矣!
(笔者为证监会持牌人，并未持有相关股份)
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疫情反覆再度拖累环球股市表现
耀才研究部称，隔晚(20日)外围股市走弱，市场继续忧虑全球疫情反覆，印度等新兴国家疫情恶化，全球经济复苏步伐受到拖累，美股三大指数全线下跌。港股ADR全线下跌，ADR港股比例指数收报28744点，较上日跌391点；「黑期」今早(21日)亦跌逾350点，相信恒指早段将会跟随外围股市低走，或再度跌穿10天线并下试20天线之支持。另外，港股近来多间大市值股份进行配股活动，安踏(02020.HK)主席丁世忠之家族基金以每股131.48港元的价格配售8,800万股旧股，配股价为昨晚销售文件所显示介乎131.28至133.88元之接近下限，投资者宜先留意股价今日能否跌穿配售价。
恒指於过去两个交易日均未能成功突破50天线，由此外围市况不配合，指数今日很大可能再回试10天及20天线之支持。4月份开局以来，一直最关键的支持位为100天线，该平均移动线已上移至28,350点水平左近，相信只要恒指未有正式跌穿此关，目前对後市之看法仍不宜过分悲观。
(笔者为证监会持牌人)~
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