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《大行报告》摩通:内险股可於首季业绩期收集 看好平安、国寿及财险
阿思达克 04-20 14:27
摩根大通发表的研究报告指,内地险企今年以来跑输恒指,主要因为首季新保单销售复苏相对较慢,为反映业务趋势,该行微调了今年新业务价值预测,相信短期新业务价值复苏较慢的因素已大致反映,相信险企风险回报有改善,而相关因素尚未反映在股价上。认为可在首季业绩期收集中国平安(02318.HK)、中国人寿(02628.HK)及中国财险(02328.HK)。

该行指出责任准备金波动一直是寿险股折让的主因,由於险企通常出售利润较低的短期储蓄保单,拖累到资产负债表的复利能力及内含价值,导致盈利及派息在不同的业务及宏观环境下波动亦较大。参考去年的资料,该行有信心责任准备金质素有改善,所以即使去年新业务价值减慢,险企大有稳定盈利并提升派息比率。另外该行相信资产质素风险今年相对较细。

摩通指出寿险销售复苏温和,估计今年首季新业务价值增长将为4%,其中国寿将为3%,而平安将为5%,将2021年新业务价值增长微降至7%,不过对内地寿险股未来四至六季新业务价值增长有信心,估计增长可达双位数。

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