《专题》一文综合券商於阿里(09988.HK)因垄断遭罚逾182亿人币後最新目标价及观点
阿里巴巴(09988.HK)(BABA.US)遭因在网络平台实施「二选一」垄断行为遭罚款182.28亿元人民币，责令停止违法行为。中信建投指阿里遭罚款金额在全球看仅低於2018年欧盟对谷歌约50亿美元(折合逾327亿人民币)罚款，但认为不会损害公司作为内地电商龙头的核心竞争力，而市场亦憧憬其所面临的反垄断的不明朗因素暂时会有所消退，可重新专注於业务，杰富瑞指公司可迎来新的起点，阿里今早盘中曾高见237.6元一度抽高近9%，最新报230.6元抢高5.8%。
阿里巴巴公布，市监总局认定集团违反《反垄断法》规定，责令集团停止违法行为，处以182.28亿元人民币罚款，并发出《行政指导书》，要求集团严格落实平台企业主体责任、加强内控合规管理、维护公平竞争、保护平台内商家和消费者合法权益等方面进行全面整改，并连续三年向市监总局提交自查合规报告。对此处罚，集团诚恳接受，坚决服从。阿里将强化依法经营，进一步加强合规体系建设。
【估罚款影响可控 消除不明朗因素】
野村证券估算，阿里遭罚款逾182亿人民币占其2022财年(从2021年4月1日开始)综合EBITA的9%。截至2020年12月，阿里拥有540亿美元的净现金。从积极的角度看，这项垄断调查的结果，可使阿里能够摆脱监管混乱的局面，并重新专注於业务，认为一笔可控的一次性费用。摩根士丹利认为，相关调整经过4个月後，阿里股价亦累跌16%，认为今次罚款结果是消除了阿里所面临不明朗因素，令市场重新聚焦於其基本面之上
中信证券表示，反垄断监管处罚对阿里的短期业绩将带来一定程度影响，当局责令阿里巴巴停止违法行为，并处以罚款182.2亿人民币(占2020财年非通用会计净利润的14%)，数额居国内内第一，全球第二，体现监管层针对於境内网络零售平台服务市场反垄断监管的决心。该行预计罚款将直接影响2022财年业绩，预计罚款占阿里2022财年非通用会计准则净利润比例约11%。现金层面，截至2021财年第三财季公司账面现金及现金等价物约为3,121亿元，罚款占比约为6%，考虑公司较强劲的自由现金流与融资能力，本次罚款的影响有望在後续逐渐得到消化。
中信证券指，此次对阿里行政处罚落地，公司初步消除了业务经营的部分不确定性，长期经营风险释放。中长周期看，数字化行业趋势下，阿里电商相关业务的核心价值依旧稳固。
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本网最新综合8间阿里巴巴港股及美股投资评级、目标价及观点
券商对阿里巴巴港股投资评级及目标价：
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
中信建投│买入│333港元
杰富瑞│买入│328港元
瑞信│跑嬴大市│304港元
广发证券│买入│298.89港元
中信证券│买入│-
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券商对阿里巴巴美股投资评级及目标价：
券商│投资评级│目标价(美元)
杰富瑞│买入│336美元
摩根大通│增持│320美元
瑞信│跑嬴大市│314美元
广发证券│买入│308.38美元
摩根士丹利│增持│300美元
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券商│观点
中信建投│料罚款金额对阿里长期经营影响有限
杰富瑞│罚款扫除其反垄断不明朗因素，迎来新起点
野村│料市场将聚焦在未来两至三季度健康电子商务增长表现
摩根大通│料潜在影响2022年总网站成交金额2%及净利润4%
瑞信│消除反垄断不明朗因素，憧憬收益有所突破
摩根士丹利│罚款後可消除集团不明朗因素，将重心转移至基本面
中信证券│初步消除业务经营不确定性，料未来更注重社会价值与科技创新
广发证券│商业主业继续加大投入
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