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渣打料美元未來走勢仍有機會向下 歐元、英鎊、澳元料將受惠復甦
阿思達克 04-07 11:55
渣打香港財富管理投資顧問董事趙海珠出席記者會時指出,料匯市會因應疫情及經濟復甦步伐走勢各異,美元首季表現強主要是憧憬經濟復甦,料美元受惠疫苗消息短期較強,不過長期走弱的基本因素仍在,料美元未來12個月走勢仍有機會向下。

她續指,歐洲疫情持續令歐元短期受壓,不過中長線隨著疫苗接種加快,或改善歐元區增長,利好歐元走勢,短期兌美元支持位在1.16,長線兌美元料可上望1.2水平。英鎊方面由於美國已有五成成年人接種疫苗,料英鎊表現或稍好於歐元,而當地經濟有望受惠全球經濟貿易,兌美元有望見1.4水平。

澳元方面她預期有機會隨經濟復甦向好,料澳洲將繼續採取寬鬆政策,或到2024年後才考慮加息問題,她又認為鐵礦石及天然氣價格走勢強利好貿易條件,惟地緣政治憂慮或有機會令澳元受壓。

在港匯方面,投資策略主管梁振輝料仍有較多資金在香港市場尋找機會,將支持港匯情況,料後市將視乎香港經濟走向、疫情控制及金融市場是否活躍等,同時亦視乎企業來港上市情況,不過如美匯轉弱或有利港匯造好。

高級投資策略師林嘉文指,在債券市場方面,渣打依然看好信用債,預期增長及企業盈利好轉,支撐該行看好新興市場美元政府債、亞洲美元債和發達市場高收益公司債。他指出收益率的升勢基本已結束,預期美國十年期國債收益率未來12個月應該處於1.5%至1.75%水平。

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