郭思治: 大市目前之形态 技术上或稍不利4月初旬之发展
香港股票分析师协会副主席郭思治称，大市昨日(30日)再进一步反弹，只是在动力不配下，技术上只属波幅性之後抽而已，恒指昨早市先高开214点至28,552点，其後一直处区间性之拉锯，上落於28,371点至28,694点之间，由於买盘态度略偏保守，故即使大市曾於日中一度重越10天线(28,588点)，但始终未能稳守其上，恒指最後报收28,577点，较上日升239点，全日总成交金额为1,692亿元，从技术上看，大市自25日低位27,505点开始之反弹，至昨日高位28,694点止计，累计之反弹幅度已达1,189点，相对月内之跌幅为2,407点计(3日之高位29,912点跌至25日之低位27,505点)，即大市已反弹跌幅之49.3%，单以此计，初步已可满足一技术反弹之所需。
叙福楼(01978.HK)截至去年12月底止全年业绩营业额8.03亿元，受疫情所累，按年跌20.2%。但由於集团经营的多元化品牌，包括自由品牌「煲仔王」、「叙福楼金阁」、亚洲菜自由品牌「牛涮锅」、「和平饭店」、亚洲菜特许经营品牌「牛角」、「温野菜」，「牛角次男坊」及「柳氏家」等均极受消费者欢迎，故全年亏转盈省1.403亿港元，上年同期蚀1122.6万元，扣除政府补贴的4,380万元，集团仍有9,650万元盈利，每股盈利17.54仙，派末期股息13.16仙。
在疫情的雾霾下，本港餐饮业确实不易经营。惟集团仍能交出一份相当亮丽的业绩，实有赖管理层及员工上下一心。而更重要的是，管理层管理得宜，在盈利大增下亦无大幅加薪，亦没有使用财技掏空公司，属正派的上市公司。集团目前现金充裕，截2020年底止计，集团持有接近1.8亿元现金，估计在最新财务报表的现金将更多。另外，为配合未来之发展，集团已结束所有中式酒楼业务，主力发展毛利较高的亚洲菜业务。
估值方面，以3月29日收市价0.75元计，伸值市盈率仅4.2倍，而息率则有达17.5里，确可顺势作中线部署。目前叙福楼的资产值约4.14亿元，参考太兴集团(06811.HK)之市盈率为15.8倍计，叙福楼的股价该为2.42元。(盈利扣除政府补贴=9,650万元x15.8倍+4.14亿元)除8亿股。
(笔者为证监会持牌人)~
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