植耀辉: 新业务发展成焦点 美团(03690.HK)宜观望
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，笔者上周曾跟大家介绍百度(09888.HK)业务及前景，亦提到投资该股要抱长线持货心态，刚巧该股自上周起急跌，以上市价计一度急跌超过20%，有指是有基金「爆仓」所致。若仅是个别基金出问题而引发抛售潮，所带来的影响亦较短暂，只是会否引发更深更广之连锁效应这点值得大家关注。当然，笔者并不会因近期股价大跌而对百度前景改观，只是既然是看其长线发展，亦不急於现阶段吸纳，还是待本轮震荡完结再作吸纳部署。
另外，大部分企业均已陆续公布业绩表现，今日(31日)则谈谈美团。笔者过去两日参考了多份大行报告，普遍认为虽然新业务会带来负担，但核心业务表现理想足以支持其未来发展。但不争的事实是，正如公司於业绩公告内提到，「公司亦可能由於我们对社区电商业务的扩张而於未来几个季度继续录得经营亏损」，意味在一段时间内，美团恐怕会持续出现亏损。
所以未来的关键在於，究竟新业务之如意算盘是否能打得响?在此不如先重温一下美团之新业务。内媒一篇文章统计过，在美团过去8个季度业绩「新业务」一栏中，共享单车出现之次数最多，不过自从2020年後，零售、社区团购及买菜等已成为公司最为重视之业务。事实上，相关业务亦正处於快速增长，美团闪购第四季度日峰值订单量达到450万。至於自营模式「美团买菜」，第四季度之季度交易用户和交易量均快速增长，并持续增加在北京、上海、广州及深圳的覆盖密度。只是在强劲增长背後，亏损亦大幅增加，第四季度新业务经营亏损便达到60亿元人民币，这亦是处於前期投资必然出现之情况。
当然，现阶段去评估新业务之成败仍言之尚早，毕竟美团本身已建立了完善网络及配套，何况餐饮外送业务本身亦是从群雄并立中脱颖而出，只是新业务相关范畴现时参与者众多，拼多多(PDD.US)便是其中一个强横的竞争对手。且看美团未来又有何板斧去打这场硬仗。不过在新业务有改善之前，笔者仍会对其前景抱观望态度，尽管「契妈」旗下新基金，以探索外太空为主题之ARKX亦有持股美团(虽然笔者也不明外太空跟外卖如何扯上关系)，惟笔者暂仍不建议现水平捞货。
(笔者为证监会持牌人，持有腾讯股份)
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恒指昨日重返「头肩顶」颈线位
耀才研究部称，隔晚(30日)美股下跌，美国十年期国债孳息率升至1.77厘之14个月高位，道指终止三连升，收跌104点，金融股表现较好，能源股则偏软。10年期美债息率於亚洲时间回落至1.72厘的水平。恒指今日(31日)季结，投资者转为关注经济数据，内地将公布官方制造业和非制造业PMI，市场分别预期数值为51.2和52，留意实际数据表现。小米(01810.HK)公布正式批准智能电动汽车业务立项，未来十年预计投资总额达100亿美元，雷军意指即使代价可能很高，公司也会沾手电动车行业。
恒指於本周重越「头肩顶」颈线位以及10天线即28,400点之上，型态属於利好，但其他技术指标未能全数配合，包括14天RSI未能重返50以上，以及昨日升市时主板成交只得1,600亿元，投资者需留意大市仍然属於整固阶段，站稳「头肩顶」颈线位为首要目标。
(笔者为证监会持牌人)~
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