郭思治: 大市目前之形態 技術上或稍不利4月初旬之發展
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱，大市昨日(30日)再進一步反彈，只是在動力不配下，技術上只屬波幅性之後抽而已，恆指昨早市先高開214點至28,552點，其後一直處區間性之拉鋸，上落於28,371點至28,694點之間，由於買盤態度略偏保守，故即使大市曾於日中一度重越10天線(28,588點)，但始終未能穩守其上，恆指最後報收28,577點，較上日升239點，全日總成交金額為1,692億元，從技術上看，大市自25日低位27,505點開始之反彈，至昨日高位28,694點止計，累計之反彈幅度已達1,189點，相對月內之跌幅為2,407點計(3日之高位29,912點跌至25日之低位27,505點)，即大市已反彈跌幅之49.3%，單以此計，初步已可滿足一技術反彈之所需。
敘福樓(01978.HK)截至去年12月底止全年業績營業額8.03億元，受疫情所累，按年跌20.2%。但由於集團經營的多元化品牌，包括自由品牌「煲仔王」、「敘福樓金閣」、亞洲菜自由品牌「牛涮鍋」、「和平飯店」、亞洲菜特許經營品牌「牛角」、「溫野菜」，「牛角次男坊」及「柳氏家」等均極受消費者歡迎，故全年虧轉盈省1.403億港元，上年同期蝕1122.6萬元，扣除政府補貼的4,380萬元，集團仍有9,650萬元盈利，每股盈利17.54仙，派末期股息13.16仙。
在疫情的霧霾下，本港餐飲業確實不易經營。惟集團仍能交出一份相當亮麗的業績，實有賴管理層及員工上下一心。而更重要的是，管理層管理得宜，在盈利大增下亦無大幅加薪，亦沒有使用財技掏空公司，屬正派的上市公司。集團目前現金充裕，截2020年底止計，集團持有接近1.8億元現金，估計在最新財務報表的現金將更多。另外，為配合未來之發展，集團已結束所有中式酒樓業務，主力發展毛利較高的亞洲菜業務。
估值方面，以3月29日收市價0.75元計，伸值市盈率僅4.2倍，而息率則有達17.5里，確可順勢作中線部署。目前敘福樓的資產值約4.14億元，參考太興集團(06811.HK)之市盈率為15.8倍計，敘福樓的股價該為2.42元。(盈利扣除政府補貼=9,650萬元x15.8倍+4.14億元)除8億股。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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