一文综合大行於吉利(00175.HK)公布业绩後最新评级、目标价及观点
吉利汽车(00175.HK)去年业绩逊预期，有券商对公司所组电动车合营持股比重感失，市场亦传出吉利科创板上市计划被质疑是否拥有足够高科技，今早(24日)股价持续受压，盘中低见19.66元一度下挫12.8%，最新报19.82元跌12.1%。摩根士丹利指吉利去年纯利低於该行原预期28%。
吉利昨中午公布截至去年业绩，纯利按年跌32.4%至55.34亿元人民币，差於本网综合20间券商的预测下限63.13亿元人民币；每股盈利0.56元人民币，派每股末期息20港仙(上年同期25港仙)。公司去年收益按年跌5.4%至921.14亿元人民币。公司指，集团向客户提供较高优惠，抵销产品组合持续提升的正面影响，期内平均出厂销售价与去年同期相若。集团於中国境内批发量按年跌4%至124.75万辆，出口则增长25%，整体销量跌3%至132万辆。
吉利表示今年整体销售目标定为153万辆，按年增长16%。公司亦表示，与VOLVO合并计划已在上月有最终定案，双方将合并涉发动机和变速器在内的动力总成业务，并在其他方面维持合作，如研发平台、自动驾驶、供应链采购等，会达至协同效应，但目前无意推进最初公布的合并上市计划。
【去年业绩逊预期 关注电动车合营】
瑞银发表报告表示，吉利去年下半年纯利仅32亿元人民币，较市场预测低38%，且新电动车合营当中，吉利於Zeekr仅占51%权益，母公司则占49%权益，与市场预期吉利全资拥有Zeekr相悖，纵使於领克电动车业务占股有51%符预期。该行认为有关安排引发市场忧虑，吉利在向高端及电动车方向转型期间，核心利益逐步从公司转至母公司的问题。该行目前正检讨给予吉利的「买入」投资评级及34元目标价。
大和下调对吉利投资评级，由「买入」降至「持有」，目标价由40元降至22元，对其盈利改善能力及新品牌策略感关注，指公司去年业绩令人失望，毛利率降至16%呈恶化。而该行亦关注吉利电动车联营品牌Zeekr的销售表现，并指基於Geometry(几何)(纯电动车品牌)系列未录高销售额，且大量新车企加入竞争。该行下调对吉利今明两年销售预测8%至10%，因预期潜在晶片短缺影响生产、销售成本上升、料新合营未来3至5年或亏损，且上海科创板收紧上市条件，估计吉利回内地上市的时间表将延後。
花旗表示，下调对吉利目标价，由58.66元降至51.5元，维持「买入」评级。该行认为吉利去年面对资本开支周期高峰及固定成本上涨，但新产品周期未来临。该行预期吉利今年毛利率将在研发成本与摊销受控下恢复。该行亦指，对吉利持电动车联营Zeeka 51%股权为逊预期。
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本网最新综合8间券商对其投资评级及目标价：
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
花旗│买入│58.66元->51.5元
瑞银│买入(检讨中)│34元(检讨中)
杰富瑞│买入│40.8元->33.3元
光大证券│买入│31.92元->27.15元
野村│买入│33.6元->27.8元
瑞信│跑赢大市│33元->27元
大和│买入->持有│40元->22元
摩根士丹利│减持│13元
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券商│观点
花旗│於合营Zeekr仅占51%权益令人失望
瑞银│去年下半年盈利逊预期，合营资本架构令人意外
杰富瑞│去年业绩见底
光大证券│业绩低於预期，看好智能电动车推进
野村│去年业绩逊预期，但预期今年复苏
瑞信│去年业绩逊预期，与母公司成立智能电动车合营并占51%股权
大和│去年业绩逊预期，料合营Zeekr将在高端电动车市场面临强烈竞争
摩根士丹利│去年业绩低该行预期28%
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