一文綜合券商於招行(03968.HK)公布業績後最新目標價及觀點
招商銀行(03968.HK)今早股價受追捧，盤中曾高見64.2元一度彈高5.9%，最新報63.45元升4.6%。，瑞銀指招行去年第四季純利按年升33%，主要是撥備支出明顯減少、淨利息及手續費收入按年各升11%及13%；中金指招行財富管理、資產管理、小微零售金融科技等新機遇業務招露內容超預期，估計招行今明兩年淨利潤增逾可達逾15%，收入結構繼續升級，股本回報率將再次進入提升通道，是新一輪金融行業業績、估值分化期的領跑者。
招行上周五(19日)晚後公布去年業績，錄得純利按年升4.8%至973.42億人民幣，每股盈利3.7元人民幣，每股派息1.253元人民幣。期內實現營業收入按年升7.6%至2,902.79億元人民幣，淨利息收入按年升6.9%至1,850.31億元人民幣；淨利差2.4%，淨利息收益率2.49%，分別按年減少0.08個及0.1個百分點。非利息淨收入按年升8.8%至1,052.48億元人民幣，其中淨手續費及佣金收入按年升11.2%至794.86億元人民幣。信用減值損失按年升6.2%至648.71億元人民幣。
截至去年底止，招行不良貸款總額536.15億元人民幣，較年初增加13.4億元人民幣，不良貸款率1.07%減少0.09個百分點；撥備覆蓋率437.68%，上升10.90個百分點；貸款撥備率4.67%，下降0.3個百分點。一級資本充足率、一級資本充足率和資本充足率分別為12.29%、13.98%及16.54%，較年初分別上升0.34、1.29和1個百分點。
【上季多賺三成券商憧今年強】
摩根士丹利發表報告，指招行上季業績顯示其旗下零售金融業務的客戶網絡強勁，決定上調對招行目標價，由55.7港元上調至73港元，維持「增持」評級，並上調對其今明兩年盈利預測5.6%及5.2%。該行指出，招行去年第四季淨利差下跌，部分與去風險及零售貸款證券化有關，但強勁零售業務支持費用收入、存款及資產管理規模健康增長，且信貸質量於充足撥備下進一步改善，為未來盈利進一步反彈提供空間。
野村稱上調對招行目標價，由69.07港元升至70.8港元，維持「買入」評級。該行指，招行去年零售金融業務收入按年升8%，但稅前盈利因信貸撥備按年跌3.9%。財富管理佣金收入按年升32.8%，佔零售客戶總佣金收益55.8%。零售客戶資產管理規模達8.9萬億元人民幣歷史高位，當中私人銀行客戶資產管理規模達2.8萬億元人民幣，為同業之冠。該行料招行與旗下招銀理財的新策略投資者摩根資產管理合作，將進一步深化招行在財富管理部分的領導地位。
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本網最新綜合8間券商對其投資評級及目標價：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
高盛│買入│87.47元
中金│跑贏行業│79.85元
瑞銀│買入│73.9元
瑞信│跑贏大市│68元->73元
摩根士丹利│增持│55.7元->73元
野村│買入│69.07元->70.8元
海通國際│中性│63.15元
美銀證券│跑輸大市│30元->35.4元
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券商│觀點
高盛│撥備減少支持稅後盈利增長
中金公司│業績符預期，大財富管理價值循環鏈拉大優勢
瑞銀│去年第四季業績穩固，受惠資產質素改善及費用增長強勁
瑞信│持續領先同業
摩根士丹利│去年第四季業績反映零售金融業務強勁
野村│去年第四季盈利強勁反彈
海通國際│主動清理不規範資產
美銀證券│核心盈利增長不吸引
(fc/w)
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