一文综合券商於招行(03968.HK)公布业绩後最新目标价及观点
招商银行(03968.HK)今早股价受追捧，盘中曾高见64.2元一度弹高5.9%，最新报63.45元升4.6%。，瑞银指招行去年第四季纯利按年升33%，主要是拨备支出明显减少、净利息及手续费收入按年各升11%及13%；中金指招行财富管理、资产管理、小微零售金融科技等新机遇业务招露内容超预期，估计招行今明两年净利润增逾可达逾15%，收入结构继续升级，股本回报率将再次进入提升通道，是新一轮金融行业业绩、估值分化期的领跑者。
招行上周五(19日)晚後公布去年业绩，录得纯利按年升4.8%至973.42亿人民币，每股盈利3.7元人民币，每股派息1.253元人民币。期内实现营业收入按年升7.6%至2,902.79亿元人民币，净利息收入按年升6.9%至1,850.31亿元人民币；净利差2.4%，净利息收益率2.49%，分别按年减少0.08个及0.1个百分点。非利息净收入按年升8.8%至1,052.48亿元人民币，其中净手续费及佣金收入按年升11.2%至794.86亿元人民币。信用减值损失按年升6.2%至648.71亿元人民币。
截至去年底止，招行不良贷款总额536.15亿元人民币，较年初增加13.4亿元人民币，不良贷款率1.07%减少0.09个百分点；拨备覆盖率437.68%，上升10.90个百分点；贷款拨备率4.67%，下降0.3个百分点。一级资本充足率、一级资本充足率和资本充足率分别为12.29%、13.98%及16.54%，较年初分别上升0.34、1.29和1个百分点。
【上季多赚三成券商憧今年强】
摩根士丹利发表报告，指招行去上季业绩显示其旗下零售金融业务的客户网络强劲，决定上调对招行目标价，由55.7港元上调至73港元，维持「增持」评级，并上调对其今明两年盈利预测5.6%及5.2%。该行指出，招行去年第四季净利差下跌，部分与去风险及零售贷款证券化有关，但强劲零售业务支持费用收入、存款及资产管理规模健康增长，且信贷质量於充足拨备下进一步改善，为未来盈利进一步反弹提供空间。
野村称上调对招行目标价，由69.07港元升至70.8港元，维持「买入」评级。该行指，招行去年零售金融业务收入按年升8%，但税前盈利因信贷拨备按年跌3.9%。财富管理佣金收入按年升32.8%，占零售客户总佣金收益55.8%。零售客户资产管理规模达8.9万亿元人民币历史高位，当中私人银行客户资产管理规模达2.8万亿元人民币，为同业之冠。该行料招行与旗下招银理财的新策略投资者摩根资产管理合作，将进一步深化招行在财富管理部分的领导地位。
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本网最新综合8间券商对其投资评级及目标价：
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
高盛│买入│87.47元
中金│跑赢行业│79.85元
瑞银│买入│73.9元
瑞信│跑赢大市│68元->73元
摩根士丹利│增持│55.7元->73元
野村│买入│69.07元->70.8元
海通国际│中性│63.15元
美银证券│跑输大市│30元->35.4元
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券商│观点
高盛│拨备减少支持税後盈利增长
中金公司│业绩符预期，大财富管理价值循环链拉大优势
瑞银│去年第四季业绩稳固，受惠资产质素改善及费用增长强劲
瑞信│持续领先同业
摩根士丹利│去年第四季业绩反映零售金融业务强劲
野村│去年第四季盈利强劲反弹
海通国际│主动清理不规范资产
美银证券│核心盈利增长不吸引
(fc/w)
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