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《業績前瞻》券商料中海油(00883.HK)去年少賺60% 估今年營運環境好轉
阿思達克 03-19 12:03
中海油(00883.HK)將於下周四(25日)公布去年業績,因新冠疫情在全球大流行,令全球球經濟衰退、國際油價一度「斷崖式」下跌使全球油氣行業陷入低迷,本網綜合16間券商預期,中海油去年純利介乎190.58億元至310.8億人民幣,較2019年純利610.45億人民幣,按年下跌49.1%至68.8%,中位數243.6億人民幣,按年跌60%。

網綜合14間券商預期中海油2020年收入介乎1,523.31億元至1,816.8萬億人民幣,較2019年2,331.99億人民幣,按年下跌22.1%至34.7%,中位數1,655.73億人民幣,按年跌29%。基於國際油價今年以來回升,券商料中海油今年營運前景將迎改善,國泰君安估計中海油今年上半年完全成本介乎每桶35至40美元,從產量規模方面,料公司今年實現5.45億至5.55億桶油當量,料2021年至2023年年均增幅可超過此前數年平均值,長期產量增長加速有利業績表現。

【料去年純利跌 今年前景改善】

中金料中海油去年純利310.8億人民幣按年跌49.1%,屬券商中預測最高水平,估計其去年營業收入跌26.7%至1,708.95億人民幣,指考慮到公司近年來增儲上產效果顯著,且未來有望持續加大上遊投入,取得優質油價儲量,指其基本面向好。

瑞銀本月發表報告,指對中海油維持正面看法,並為其於區內最看好股份,相信其產能前景強勁,相比同業生產成本更低,淨現金資產負債表及自由現金流強勁,派息紀錄亦良好。興業證券指中海油2月初發布今年戰略指引,料2021至2023年公司產量目標為5.45億至5.55億桶油當量、5.9億至6億桶油當量、和6.4億至6.5億桶油當量,年均複合增速達6.6至7.2%,並指按油價與其敏感性分析,若油價上漲至每桶60、70及80美元,估中海油淨利潤可達563億、717億及837億人民幣。

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本網綜合16間券商預期,中海油去年純利介乎190.58億元至310.8億人民幣,較2019年純利610.45億人民幣,按年下跌49.1%至68.8%,中位數243.6億人民幣,按年跌60%。

券商│2020年純利預測(人民幣)│按年變幅

中金│310.8億元│-49.1%

美銀證券│308.97億元│-49.4%

摩根大通│256.29億元│-58%

中銀國際│255.97億元│-58.1%

法巴│253.75億元│-58.4%

天風証券│253.18億元│-58.5%

國泰君安│246.44億元│-59.6%

大和│244.49億元│-60%

海通國際│242.71億元│-60.2%

瑞信│240.49億元│-60.6%

興業証券│240.2億元│-60.7%

摩根士丹利│227.09億元│-62.8%

里昂│224.99億元│-63.1%

高盛│214.66億元│-64.8%

匯豐環球研究│214億元│-64.9%

工銀國際│190.58億元│-68.8%

按中海油2019年純利610.45億人民幣計算

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網綜合14間券商預期中海油2020年收入介乎1,523.31億元至1,816.8萬億人民幣,較2019年2,331.99億人民幣,按年下跌22.1%至34.7%,中位數1,655.73億人民幣,按年跌29%。

券商│2020年收入預測(人民幣)│按年變幅

摩根大通│1,816.8億元│-22.1%

天風証券│1,748.93億元│-25%

匯豐環球研究│1,741億元│-25.3%

中金│1,708.95億元│-26.7%

美銀證券│1,685.75億元│-27.7%

中銀國際│1,668.55億元│-28.4%

瑞信│1,662.18億元│-28.7%

工銀國際│1,649.28億元│-29.3%

興業証券│1,628.7億元│-30.2%

法巴│1,618.14億元│-30.6%

大和│1,585.6億元│-32%

高盛│1,581.43億元│-32.2%

國泰君安│1,549.83億元│-33.5%

海通國際│1,523.31億元│-34.7%

按中海油2019年收入2,331.99億人民幣計算

(ta/w)

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