《業績前瞻》券商料長和(00001.HK)去年按IFRS 16前基準純利跌逾27% 估派息削25%(更新)
長和(00001.HK)將於明天(18日)公布去年度業績，由於新冠疫情在全球大流行，影響遍及大部分行業，旗下零售及港口業務受衝擊，旗下能源業務亦受油價大幅波動影響，本網綜合4間券商預測，按IFRS(際財務報告準則)16(「租賃」)前基準，料長和去年純利料介乎261.05億至381.99億元，較2019年IFRS 16前基準純利398.88億元，按年減少4.2%至34.5%，中位數293.3億元，按年下跌26.5%。
摩根大通及美銀證券料長和2020年IFRS 16後基準純利288.02億元及294.91億元，較2019年同期398.3億元按年跌26%至27.7%。綜合3間券商預測，料長和2020年收益總額預測3,685.25億至4,040.19億元，較2019年4,398.56億元，按年下跌8.2%至16.2%。
每綜合5間券商預測，料長和2020年每股全年派息介乎2.1至3.17元，較2019年3.17元，按年跌4.1%至持平，中位數為2.39元，按年跌24.6%。
【受疫情拖累 料派息削兩成】
摩根士丹利預期長和去年IFRS 16前基準純利按年跌25.1%至298.58億元，收益總額按年減少8.1%至4,040.19億元，料其中零售業務收入錄1,650.12億元按年跌2%、估計能源業務收入按年跌30%至333.25億元、估計CKH Group Telecom業務收入按年倒退9%至850.18億元，其中3G歐洲業務收入按年跌9%，並估計港口業務收入按年下滑4%至340億元。該行料長和去年核心EBITDA按年跌17%至863.47億元、料公司旗下能源業務EBITDA錄虧損28.83億元，料港口、零售、基建業務EBITDA按年各跌7%、16%、8%。
美銀證券預計，長和去年按IFRS 16後基準純利按年跌26%至294.91億元，受新冠疫情拖累零售、港口及能源業務盈利，但按年跌幅料由上半年的29%收窄至下半年的20%，因受惠於中國零售業務改善。該行指長和旗下歐洲電訊業務仍具挑戰性。
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本網綜合4間券商預測，按IFRS(際財務報告準則)16(「租賃」)前基準，料長和去年純利料介乎261.05億至381.99億元，較2019年IFRS 16前基準純利398.88億元，按年減少4.2%至34.5%，中位數293.3億元，按年下跌26.5%。
券商│IFRS 16前基準2020年的純利預測│按年變幅
高盛│381.99億元│-4.2%
摩根士丹利│298.58億元│-25.1%
摩根大通│288.02億元│-27.8%
瑞銀│261.05億元│-34.5%
按長和2019年IFRS 16前基準純利398.88億元計算
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綜合3間券商預測，料長和2020年收益總額預測3,685.25億至4,040.19億元，較2019年4,398.56億元，按年下跌8.2%至16.2%。
券商│2020年收益總額預測│按年變幅
摩根士丹利│4,040.19億元│-8.2%
摩根大通│3,788.13億元│-13.9%
里昂│3,685.25億元│-16.2%
按長和2019年收益總額4,398.56億元計算
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綜合5間券商預測，料長和2020年每股全年派息介乎2.1至3.17元，較2019年3.17元，按年跌4.1%至持平，中位數為2.39元，按年跌24.6%。
券商│2020年每股股息預測│按年變幅
摩根大通│3.17元│持平
高盛│3.04元│-4.1%
野村│2.39元│-24.6%
摩根士丹利│2.25元│-29%
瑞銀│2.1元│-33.8%
按長和2019年每股股息3.17元計算
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