野村:料今年中國利率穩定 重申對內地金融業正面看法
野村發表研究報吿指,內地2月份的社會融資規模及新增貸款都超出市場預期,認為在較高基數下,社會融資規模和貸款在3月份將會有顯著下降。該行重申對中國金融業正面看法,行業將是經濟強勁復甦的主要受惠者。
考慮到有利的利率前景,以及壽險公司保費回升和銀行資產質量的改善,該行首選是壽險企業和銀行,長期核心股份為招商銀行(3968.HK)和中國平安(2318.HK),並預期大型銀行如建設銀行(0939.HK)、工商銀行(1398.HK)和農業銀行(1288.HK)有追趕機會,因為其去年第四季強勁的盈利反彈,及穩定的派息比率。
野村表示,公司和家庭的中、長期貸款錄得強勁增長,表明信貸需求強勁,而且結構正不斷改善。社會融資規模在2月份從13%升至13.3%,扭轉了去年10月以來的跌勢;貸款總額增速就從按年增長12.7%擴大至12.9%,中長期的公司和家庭貸款亦有加快,而短期的貸款則有所收縮。
該行又指,隨着10年期國債的收益率和3個月的上海銀行同業拆放利率(SHIBOR)恢復至疫情前的水平,預期今年利率將進一步穩定,為內地銀行及壽險行業提供更有利的經營環境,並預計覆蓋的銀行今年將看到穩定的資產質量趨勢,進一步支持其利潤恢復。
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