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瑞银汪涛:内地政策定调较预期宽松 经济增长目标具上行空间
阿思达克 03-09 10:56
瑞银特约首席经济学家汪涛及经济学家锺挥发表报告,指内地今年经济增长目标较为保守、留足上行空间。中央政府将今年的GDP增速目标定在「6%以上」,可能是考虑到疫情和全球经济的复苏仍存在较大的不确定性,同时希望引导各方将精力集中到推进改革创新和高质量发展等其他更重要的方面,而且也是为了能和「十四五」时期的目标平稳衔接。此外,政府提出今年城镇新增就业目标要在1,100万人以上。该行预计今年中国GDP实际增速有望达到8.2%。考虑到美国可能出台更大规模的刺激方案,瑞银的预测面临的风险更偏上行。

报告称,虽然今年增长目标为6%以上、较为保守,但政策定调比预期的宽松。今年拟安排的官方赤字率达3.2%,仍在3%以上,且地方政府专项债券新增额度相比去年也仅少了1,000亿元人民币,同时政府还决定延长小规模纳税人增值税优惠等部分阶段性政策执行期限,推出新的减税降费措施,以及延续普惠小微企业贷款延期还本付息政策等。此外,值得注意的是,政府工作报告中没有关於进一步收紧房地产政策的直接表述。

瑞银预计内地信贷增速因流动性和监管收紧、而非加息而放缓。该行料今年信贷增速将从去年10月13.8%的本轮峰值放缓至10.8%。该行认为今年信贷增速放缓可能主要是由流动性投放减少和宏观审慎措施收紧,包括加强对影子信贷和互联网金融的监管和指导,而加息并非主要工具。虽然该行预计央行可能会在下半年小幅上调逆回购操作利率和MLF利率5个基点,但实际贷款利率可能不会上行。同时,瑞银预计今年内地宏观杠杆率会下降1至2个百分点(去年增加了24个百分点)。

报告补充,为提振内需和释放增长潜力,政府应会继续推进结构性改革,包括深化土地和户籍改革,有序取消一些行政性限制消费购买的规定和进一步简政放权,支持民企和服务业发展,完善社保体系和推进公共服务均等化等。扩大内需对於吸引外资和应对「脱勾」压力同样十分关键。「十四五」时期其他重要的宏观主题还包括推动创新和科技自立自强、加快数字化发展,以及推动绿色发展等。

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