《两会》景顺料内地明年采取更保守政策立场 风险资产或出现一段时间调整
中国十三届全国人大四次会议今天开幕,景顺亚太区(日本除外)环球市场策略师赵耀庭发表评论,预计明年中国将开始采取更为保守甚至收紧的政策立场,而中国加快疫苗接种将改善消费者的情绪,有助每月零售额反弹。
他指,中国当局已将2021年GDP的目标定为高於6%,而此前的普遍共识预期为8.4%。市场参与者若希望为期一周的人大开幕能带来投资气氛转变,可能会感到失望。他对今天的政策导向并不感到惊讶。由於疫情调控理想,中国官员最近重新开始致力减低金融风险。而一名中国银行高级监管官员本周对「危险」的投机性投资泡沫,尤其是房地产领域表示担忧,并表示需要去杠杆化。随着经济改善,可以预见中国人民银行将考虑提高利率并加强信贷控制。
他提到,对於流动性收紧、近期消费情绪下降,以及全球债券收益率上升的担忧可能会导致中国风险资产出现一段时间的调整,但认为调整的幅度不会比2018年所看到的大,因为这次的总体投资者杠杆比率要低得多,全球疫苗的推出应该是一个正面的宏观背景。在中国,疫苗的推出速度势必会加快,并且中国政府有决心在2021年中期之前为40%的人口接种疫苗。接种疫苗将改善消费者的情绪,并应推动每月零售额反弹。
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