郭思治: 本月定必有更大之波幅点出现
香港股票分析师协会副主席郭思治称,大市昨(2日)先升後跌,恒指更一度跌穿29,000点。恒指昨日先高开256点至29,708点,其後再稍升至29,765点。惟由於买盘保守,加上沽压又再阵阵涌现,故整个大市卒掉头回落,而且跌势越来越急,至午後二时更一度低见28,957点。即是说,其时大市已急跌达495点。单从走势上看,大市此刻已稍跌穿上周五之低位28,980点,论形态当属偏淡。惟正当大市初呈跌破讯号之时,买盘开始继续作扶持,故市势得以止跌并稍作後抽。恒指最後报收29,095点,较上日跌356点,全日总成交金额为2,327亿元。
3月只过了两个交易日。直到目前一刻止计,本月高位暂为2日之29,765点,而低位亦是2日之28,957点,即波幅暂为808点。惟一个月之高低位是不会同时出现於同一个交易日之内,况且808点之波幅亦不可能满足月内所需,故在本月下旬之前,技术上定必有更大波幅点出现。而照目前之形态看,恒指如不能上破29,765点,则可能会跌穿28,957点。
前文已述多次,大市自2月18日高位31,183点开始之回调,技术上该属中期大型急升後之调整,故整个调整期可能会长达四周或以上。即是说,至本月下旬之前,大市之走势或会继续处反覆欲试低位之弱态中。
(笔者为证监会持牌人)~
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