《大行報告》中金料加股票印花稅每日新增成本3,900萬元 直接影響有限
中金發表研究報告指,上調股票印花稅為近三十年來首次。疫情以來,香港經濟備受衝擊,2020年一季度GDP同比增速下滑幅度超過9%,超過1998年亞洲金融危機和2008年金融危機,私人消費下滑尤為嚴重。在此背景下,財政狀況也明顯吃緊,2020年財政赤字擴大到GDP的 5.8%,也是近30年以來最大。因此,在經濟、企業、居民收入和消費依然承受壓力、而金融市場相對活躍的背景下(港交所2020年總成交超過32萬億,較2019年增長50%,近期主板單日成交額一度超過3,500億),政府擬提高印花稅來增加政府稅收。
該行指,從財政收入角度,根據財政司司長陳茂波的預測,印花稅上調使得2021/22財年印花稅總收入增加129億元至920億元,增16%。2009年以來,香港徵收印花稅為香港創收620至950億元,佔香港總財政收入12%左右。其中,股票交易印花稅佔約50%左右,大致在310-480億元區間,這樣算下來提高印花稅大約提振財政收入2%左右。
該行又指,對股票市場影響主要在於提高交易摩擦成本。從市場交易額角度測算,自2020年7月以來,港股日成交金額在1,000-2,500億元左右,平均為1,300億元左右(其中,2020年滬市港股通買盤加賣盤平均每日成交130億,深市港股通為113億)。如果將交易印花稅提升0.03個百分點,粗略估算對應每天新增成本約3,900萬元。
該行認為,短期印花稅的上調可能更多從情緒上擾動市場,疊加近期對於利率和通脹上行的擔憂,可能會放大波動,但由於直接影響相對有限,因此不至於逆轉基本面改善和流向性向好的大方向。(ic/u) ~
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