《大行報告》摩通:港交所(00388.HK)因加股票印花稅受挫 認為股價調整過度
摩根大通發表報告表示,港交所(00388.HK)今日股價挫逾8%,主要是市場關注港府擬提交法案調整股票印花稅稅率,由現時買賣雙方按交易金額各付0.1%提高至0.13%,基於港交所業務性質屬「獨市」,投資者要作另一選項機會有限,該行認為港交所今日股價反應屬過度,並指公司去年第四季業績優於預期。
按該行估算,港府上調股票印花稅稅率,將令投資者最終交易成本上升約27%至1.42%(原先為1.12%),即股票印花稅佔交易成本由原來90%升至92%,相信對港股波動比率有細小影響,雖然該行認為仍難以簡單量化。
【料調整已過度 待良好介入點】
摩通指,港交所股價回調逾8%後,反映預期港股日均成交額為2,700億元水平,相信其今日股價對港府上調股票印花稅稅率的反應屬過度。該行指仍看好港交所中期(未來兩至五年)前景,因為港交所提供了最獨特的服務之一,屬協助全球資本流動平台之一、第二是集團收入分配需要匹配市場對其股價可持續上漲的期望。第三是公司為保持增長持續所作的努力。該行認為港交所一旦呈顯著調整,將關注其何時提供良好介入點。
就港交所公布去年第四季純利錄29.25億元按年升48%,高於該行原預期7%,公司去年純利錄115.05億元按年升23%,高於該行及市場同業原預期1至2%。摩通維持對港交所「中性」評級及目標價500元,此相當預測市盈率38倍。
摩通估計港股今年日均成交額2,960億元、料明年日均成交額將進一步升至3,270億元,料可受惠內地經濟復蘇、全球流動性、更多第二上市企業獲納入南向交易名單、更多新經濟概念股上市等。
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