《大行報告》大摩上調匯控(00005.HK)目標價至46元 評級「與大市同步」
摩根士丹利發表研究報告,上調匯豐控股(0005.HK)盈測,指其收入改善被開支增加所部分抵銷,認為收入勢頭屬中期估值重評的關鍵,維持予匯控「與大市同步」評級,目標價由43元升至46元。
報告稱,匯控盈利勝預期,並恢復派息,第四季經調整稅前盈利勝市場預期23%,主因收入增加和撥備減少,撥備前經營盈利亦勝市場預期3%,抵銷成本上升。考慮業績、外匯變動及稅務開支減少,大摩升匯控今年每股盈測6%,明年則升8%。考
大摩稱,在新的派息政策下,以半年為基礎,維持今年股息預測22美仙。報告稱,隨著經濟重啟、風險加權資產基本監管趨勢趨明確等,明後兩年料有更強勁總分派的討論。大摩料2022及2023年匯控分派比率分別達47%及50%,明年將恢復20億美元回購。
報告指出,匯控策略檢討針對收入增長、成本和資本流向亞洲,同時繼續過去的策略,如風險資產和業務的重新分配、減少經營和業務複雜性,以降低成本等,公司目標中期有形資產回報可至10%,核心一級資本比率為14%至14.5%。
大摩相信,匯控第四季的數字加上策略公布可支持股價,相信成本控制計劃現實並有望達成,並對匯控中期在重組後利用自有資金投資的展望感鼓舞,不過現時市場已預期匯控有形資產回報將逐漸改善至明年,相信未來股價需靠淨收入增長支持。
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