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《業績前瞻》券商料恆生(00011.HK)去年經調整盈利跌32% 每股派息5.5元
阿思達克 02-18 11:39
恆生銀行(00011.HK)將於下周二(23日)公布去年業績,料受新冠疫情大流行拖累,令撥備支出趨升(料平均升逾63%)及營運受挑戰,本網綜合5間券商預測恆生銀行2020年經調整盈利預測(就額外一級資本票據之相關扣減作調整盈利),介乎159.31億元至176.38億元,較2019年同期244.21億元,按年下跌27.8%至34.8%,中位數為166.5億元按年跌31.8%。

本網綜合5間券商預測恆生銀行2020年淨利息收入介乎273.48億元至286億元,按年下跌11.3%至15.2%,中位數為267.88億元按年跌17%。投資者關注恆生派息方面,綜合4間券商預測恆生銀行2020年每股股息預測介乎4.7元至5.5元,按年下滑33%至49%,中位數為5.5元按年跌33%。

【受疫情拖累 盈利派息降】

美銀證券估計恆生銀行去年淨利息收入按年跌15.2%、淨息差為1.75%按年跌0.45個百分點、料恆生去年總體非利息收入錄89.7億元按年倒退20.2%、估計其去年撥備支出按年升59%至26.8億元,料經調整盈利166.5億元按年下滑31.8%,估計每股派息5.5元按年跌33%,派息比率為63%,料其至去年底普通股權一級資本比率降至16%。

摩根士丹利估計恆生去年經調整純利按年倒退35%至159.31億元、料淨利息收入按年跌18.7%至262.31億元、料貸款增長2%、淨息差為1.64%;該行料恆生去年總體非利息收入95.73億元按年跌15%,料每股經調整盈利降35%至8.33元,估計每股全年派息降33%至5.5元,料現金股本回報率由2019年15.2%降至期內9.5%。該行料港銀股今年復蘇較慢,料恆生2021年股本回報率稍為回升至9.8%。

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本網綜合5間券商預測恆生銀行2020年經調整盈利預測(就額外一級資本票據之相關扣減作調整盈利),介乎159.31億元至176.38億元,較2019年同期244.21億元,按年下跌27.8%至34.8%,中位數為166.5億元按年跌31.8%。

券商│2020年經調整盈利預測(港元)│按年變幅

花旗|176.38億元|-27.8%

高盛|167.39億元|-31.5%

美銀證券|166.5億元|-31.8%

海通國際|162.2億元|-33.6%

摩根士丹利|159.31億元|-34.8%

按恆生銀行2019年就額外一級資本票據之相關扣減後調整之盈利244.21億元計算

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本網綜合5間券商預測恆生銀行2020年淨利息收入介乎273.48億元至286億元,按年下跌11.3%至15.2%,中位數為267.88億元按年跌17%。

券商│2020年淨利息收入預測(港元)│按年變幅

法巴|286億元|-11.3%

美銀證券|273.48億元|-15.2%

海通國際|267.88億元|-16.9%

花旗|265.25億元|-17.8%

摩根士丹利|262.31億元|-18.7%

按恆生銀行2019年淨利息收入322.55億元計算

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綜合4間券商預測恆生銀行2020年信貸損失變動及其他信貸減值提撥預測介乎27.21億元至30億元,按年升48.1%至68.2%,中位數為30億元按年升63.3%。

券商│2020年信貸損失變動及其他信貸減值提撥預測(港元)│按年變幅

摩根士丹利│30億元│+68.2%

海通國際│30.42億元│+65.6%

法巴│29.89億元│+62.7%

花旗│27.21億元│+48.1%

按恆生銀行2019年預期信貸損失變動及其他信貸減值提撥18.37億元計

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綜合4間券商預測恆生銀行2020年每股股息預測介乎4.7元至5.5元,按年下滑33%至49%,中位數為5.5元按年跌33%。

券商│2020年每股股息預測(港元)│按年變幅

摩根士丹利│5.5元│-33%

美銀證券│5.5元│-33%

花旗│5.5元│-33%

海通國際│4.7元│-42.7%

按恆生銀行2019年每股股息8.2元計算

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