《大行報告》瑞銀升郵儲行(01658.HK)評級至「買入」 目標價上調至6.7元
瑞銀發表研究報告,預期郵儲銀行(01658.HK)2020年盈利將由跌轉升,由首九個月的按年下跌2.7%轉為全年錄得正增長,並預期今年利潤可回復至疫情前的水平,首季增幅有望達到雙位數。
瑞銀指出,內地貨幣政策正常化的背景下,預計今年首季市場利率將上升,人行可能會在下半年提高政策利率,認為郵儲行的銀行同業資金僅佔負債約3%,其投資收益率在市場利率帶動下可受惠,預計如果利率能夠保持較高水平,其撥備前利潤增長將有明顯改善。
該行提到,雖然貸款增長可能會從2020年的高基數放緩,但預計郵儲行的貸款增長將繼續相對較快,因為該行計劃將其貸存比每年提高約3個百分點;另外中銀監會最近批准其定向增發計劃,料將支持其中期貸款增長。
瑞銀指出,郵儲行現價為2021年預測市帳率的0.7倍,對比其他大型銀行水平為約0.4至0.5倍,增長預期推動股價自去年9月的低位回升,估計在中期利潤增長加快及股本回報前景改善的推動下,郵儲行未來仍會繼續跑贏其他大行,將評級由「中性」升至「買入」,目標價由3.5元上調至6.7元,並將2020至2021年每股盈利預測上調22%至23%。
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