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華創證券首予快手(01024.HK)「推薦」評級 予目標價區間248至304元
阿思達克 02-05 11:26
華創證券發表報告表示,首予快手(01024.HK)「推薦」評級,予目標價區間248至304元。該行預計快手2020年至2022年營收分別為585.3億、794.5億和1,018億人民幣按年增速分別為49.6%、35.7%、28.1%。

若按市銷率估值,快手未來兩年收入能見度較高,參考嗶哩嗶哩(BILI.US)2022年預測市銷率11倍,對應快手2022年1,018億人民幣營收,該行給予快手預測市銷率估值8倍至10倍,對應8,144億至1,0180億人民幣。按單日活用戶價值:對標同為內容平台的嗶哩嗶哩(目前嗶哩嗶哩用戶增速更高,但快手變現能力更強,嗶哩嗶哩單日活躍用戶價值750美元),給予快手單日活躍用戶為500至600美元價值,對應快手市值估值應為1,300億至1,560億美元(約1萬億至1.21億港元),對應快手目標價248至304港元。

【行業三強鼎立 廣告為增長點】

就騰訊(00700.HK)旗下「視頻號」的「異軍突起」,對本已穩固的「抖快(抖音與快手)雙雄」格局造成了衝擊,長期看,該行判斷「三強林立」的格局會持續存在。內容消費依托場景而存在,騰訊旗下視頻號的社交工作場景天然與抖音、快手純娛樂場景形成區隔。娛樂化的抖音及快手與基於社交關系成長的「視頻號」,無論在滿足用戶需求、視頻內容的類型、還是產品定位上均有較大不同。

就何看待快手未來的商業化進程,華創證券指以三年為周期,2017至2019年看直播、2020至2022年看廣告,長期看電商業務。該行指快手旗下直播打賞方面,從增速來看直播打賞業務已經走過了2017年至2019年的高速增長期,預計未來保持10%左右穩健增速。

該行指快手旗下廣告業務是未來三年驅動快手收入增長的最大看點。目前快手的單日活用戶廣告價值遠低於抖音,而快手2020年向抖音學習,8.0改版、磁力引擎升級、推出更多廣告產品(小店通),預計2020年至2022年廣告業務復合增速有望超50%。

華創證券料快手於2020年至2023年虧損預測各為982.63億、897.42億及797.08億人民幣。

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