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國信證券首予快手(01024.HK)「買入」評級 料合理市值最高近9,800億元
阿思達克 02-05 08:51
國信證券上周發表報告,首予快手(01024.HK)「買入」評級,認為公司的2023年的合理估值為市值1,141億至1,264億美元(約8,845.8億至9,799.4億港元),對應2023年市銷率為5倍至5.5倍,採用股權自由現金流(FCFF)估值方法。

該行指,內地短視頻是一個優質的增量賽道。快手作為行業龍頭,除直播業務外,廣告、直播電商的變現處於非常初級的階段,根據產品改版和公司近期動向判斷,短期內,快手廣告業務變現將迎來高速增長;長期來看,直播電商的貨幣化率和GMV均存在非常大的提升空間,有望成為快手繼直播、廣告之外的第三增長曲線。

基於對快手發展的看好,該行預期快手在2020年至2022年收入增速分別為52%、39%、42%,長遠來看,銷售費率會有所降低。

國信證券表示,快手直播已經進入平穩增長階段,料公司於2020年至2023年直播收入的複合增長率為5%。該行估計快手的廣告加載率的提升、數據及銷售能力的優化,都有望提升其廣告變現效率,且確定性較強,預計公司旗下廣告業務於2020年至2023年收入複合增長率為58%。直播電商的GMV、變現效率均有較大提升空間,料其2020年至2023年直播電商收入複合增長率約為80%,有望成為快手的第三變現曲線。

該行料快手2020年及2021年各虧1,042.19億及79.36億人民幣、並估計公司2022年扭虧為盈賺86.65億人民幣、料2023年錄純利222.79億人民幣。

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