【國君非銀】中國平安2020年年度業績點評:財報數據低於預期,2021否極泰來
本報吿導讀:
公司核心指標低於預期,主要是新單銷售不及預期及資產端OCI浮虧所致;淨利潤增速及分紅略超預期。考慮到公司轉型項目已全面落地,預計21年NBV觸底反彈。
投資要點
維持“增持”評級,維持目標價109.18元/股,對應2021年P/EV為1.34倍:得益於四季度投資收益改善,公司2020年歸母淨利潤負增長幅度環比明顯收窄,為1,430.99億元,同比-4.2%;集團歸母營運利潤1,394.70億元,同比增長4.9%;全年派息2.20元/股,同比增長7.3%,在市場環境複雜以及業績承壓背景下仍然重視股東回報,超出市場預期。考慮到750天國債收益率曲線仍呈下行趨勢,下調2021-2023年EPS為8.65(8.69, -0.5%)/10.07(10.52,-4.2%)/11.93元。
20年是壽險改革艱難期,NBV增速略低於預期:1)疫情下新單及價值率均承壓,NBV同比-34.7%,略低於市場預期。其中新業務價值率受制於疫情下產品結構變化同比下滑14.0pt至33.3%,主要加大獲客類產品的銷售導致長期保障型產品的新業務價值率下滑8.9pt;新單同比下降7.2%,主要原因是代理人線上展業難度加大,代理人渠道的新單貢獻明顯下降,同比-25.5%。2)轉型下人力指標承壓,大力淘汰低產能代理人的背景下20年人力規模102萬,同比下降-12.3%;月人均新業務價值3,391元,同比下降28.4%。3)隨着20年壽險轉型項目的全面落地,預計21年率先將看到人力指標的企穩反彈,重點關注人力規模的企穩,以及代表人力質量的核心指標(活動率、人均產能、人均收入)的提升。
高股息金融股20年表現疲弱,導致投資不及預期:由於20年高股息金融股表現較為疲弱,而率先實行IFRS9的中國平安大量持有這類資產,導致投資表現不及預期,體現為453億元股票浮虧計入OCI,從而導致集團EV的投資收益偏差-73.75億元。長期來看,險資長久期的負債特性疊加IFRS9的影響,公司投資高股息資產的方向並無問題,隨着市場環境改善,預計後續投資壓力將顯著緩解。
催化劑:開門紅NBV增長超預期。
風險提示:華夏幸福債務違約;股市下跌;人力質量提升低於預期。
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