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《大行報告》大摩料內地今年利率及政策趨勢 可支持內銀股今年股價表現
阿思達克 02-02 14:30
摩根士丹利發表研究報告,相信內地經濟復甦勢頭及控制金融風險的需求,將導致利率出現潛在的意外上升,有望支持銀行的淨息差勢頭。該行提到,隨著中國名義GDP增長由去年的3%提速至今年的料逾11%,預期相關的信貸需求增加將導致利率上升。另外,去年家庭金融資產增速遠高於預期的15.6%,強勁的消費支付量增長意味著商業活動表現高於官方數據,可能為利率帶來上行壓力。

最後,大量的短期流動性可能會導致資產價格及金融風險快速上升,這需要以適當的市場利率水平作信號來進行更仔細與及時的管理,或會強化利率上升預期。這現象與新的銀行融資法規相結合,可以幫助遏制銀行的融資成本,應能支持穩定或改善銀行的淨息差。

該行料內地今年利率及政策趨勢,將可支持內銀股今年股價表現。具領導地位的中型銀行有更大的發展空間,部分國有銀行的估值或會有反彈。預期強勁的家庭金融資產增長,將支持資產管理業務不斷擴張的零售銀行,包括平安銀行、興業銀行及招商銀行(03968.HK);而利率上升及政策轉變將支持部分國有銀行的估值重估。

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