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《業績前瞻》券商料中國平安(02318.HK)去年少賺13% 新業務價值跌30%
阿思達克 02-02 12:35
中國平安(02318.HK))將於明天(3日)公布2020年業績,期內受到新冠疫情大流行影響及壽險(保險代理團隊及渠道)改革影響下,本網綜合15間券商料中國平安去年純利介乎1,223.93億至1,381.34億人民幣,較2019年純利1,494.07億人民幣,按年跌7.5%至18.1%,中位數1,299.85億人民幣,按年下跌13%。

券商指公司上季新單保費降幅較去年前三季擴大,因公司上季已將業務重心轉至今年「開門紅」業務,綜合13間券商料平安去年新業務價值介乎501.24億至609.36億人民幣,較上年同期純利759.45億人民幣,按年跌19.8%至跌34%,中位數530億人民幣,按年下滑30.2%。

投資者將關注中國平安管理層對新業務價值增長、保險代理、企業業務策略及收購計劃的指引。

【受疫情所拖累 新業務價值跌】

摩根士丹利估計中國平安去年新業務價值將按年下滑30%至530億人民幣,屬表現最差的上市險企之一,料中國平安去年壽險業務剩餘價值增長放慢至7.8%(對比2019年增長16.8%)、料保險代理人數按年跌12%至102.69萬、保險代理效率(每月首年度保費)7,877元人民幣(2019年為8,038元人民幣)、淨利潤率降至36.6%(2019年為47.3%)

中金上月下旬發表報告,料中國平安去年新業務價值按年下滑32%,指最壞時刻已,預計營運利潤按年略微增長2%,負面因素包括去年第四季新業務價值有較大幅度按年下降、車險綜改下財險營運利潤承壓,正面因素包括預計上季旗下銀行業務利潤反彈。

該行估計中國平安去年內含價值增長11.4%、料淨利潤年下降15%。該行估計平安上季保障型產品較難銷售的狀況可能仍在持續、從而影響產品結構,因此價值率按年可能仍有下降,從而使去年第四季新業務價值有較大幅度按年下降。該行認為市場對平安去年新業務價值下降基本有所預期。

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本網綜合15間券商料中國平安去年純利介乎1,223.93億至1,381.34億人民幣,較2019年純利1,494.07億人民幣,按年跌7.5%至18.1%,中位數1,299.85億人民幣,按年下跌13%。

券商│去年純利預測│按年變幅

銀河-聯昌│1,381.34億元│-7.5%

大和│1,373.15億元│-8.1%

星展│1,361.74億元│-8.9%

匯豐環球研究│1,355.47億元│-9.2%

華泰金控│1,353.36億元│-9.4%

中銀國際│1,324.08億元│-11.4%

花旗│1,313.97億元│-12%

瑞銀│1,299.85億元│-13%

瑞信│1,296.39億元│-13.2%

交銀國際│1,274.9億元│-14.7%

法巴│1,269.91億元│-15%

中金│1,267.51億元│-15.2%

建銀國際│1,266.71億元│-15.2%

光大証券│1,227億元│-17.9%

工銀國際│1,223.93億元│-18.1%

按中國平安截至2019年12月底止純利1,494.07億人民幣推算

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綜合13間券商料中國平安去年新業務價值介乎501.24億至609.36億人民幣,較上年同期純利759.45億人民幣,按年跌19.8%至跌34%,中位數530億人民幣,按年下滑30.2%。

券商│去年新業務價值預測│按年變幅

工銀國際│609.36億元│-19.8%

建銀國際│569.6億元│-25%

瑞銀│569.59億元│-25%

華泰金控│553.64億元│-27.1%

匯豐環球研究│549.7億元│-27.6%

交銀國際│531.32億元│-30%

摩根士丹利│530億元│-30.2%

中金│519.05億元│-31.7%

中銀國際│517.78億元│-31.8%

大和│516.44億元│-32%

野村│507.67億元│-33.2%

銀河-聯昌│507.45億元│-33.2%

瑞信│501.24億元│-34%

按中國平安截至2019年12月底止新業務價值759.45億人民幣推算

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