郭家耀: 憧憬科網績佳港股料試29,500 手機市場加快復甦
正榮金融業務部副總裁郭家耀稱,美股周一(2月1日)大幅向好,拆倉活動收斂,科技股重新展現強勢,帶領大市向上,三大指數均錄得顯著升幅收市。美元走勢向好,金價及油價向上,美國十年期債息回落至1.08厘水平。港股預託證券普遍向好,預料大市早段跟隨高開。內地股市高收,滬綜指收市上升0.6%,重上3,500點水平,滬深兩市成交額有所縮減。
港股急跌後展現強勁反彈,指數高開高走,逼近29,000點關口,成交則略為縮減。外圍氣氛改善,市場憧憬科網股業績表現理想,有助帶動大市向上,預料指數有望上試29,500點阻力,下方支持在28,500點附近。
另調查機構IDC發表的報告指出,去年第四季全球智能手機出貨量持續改善,按年上升4.3%至3.86億台,全年則按年下跌5.9%,市場復甦進展令人滿意,亦相信勢頭將持續至2021年並維持強勁。IDC分析指出市場復甦主要是受惠需求提升,而5G進取的優惠及中低價手機受歡迎等亦繼續推動供應。預料廠商已預備好第二輪封城,並確保有合適的渠道滿足訂單及接觸到終端消費者,封城下消費者將減少在休閒、旅遊、外出用膳等的消費,而智能手機料將受惠。另一方面,智能手機供應鏈快速復甦等亦有推動作用。
按品牌劃分,蘋果(AAPL.US)第四季出貨量表現強勁,受惠iPhone 12系列推出蘋果出貨量按年升22.2%至9,010萬台,排全球首位,三星出貨量則上升6.2%至7,390萬台,小米(01810.HK)出貨量大升32%至4,330萬台,排全球第三,華為出貨量則大跌42.4%至3,230萬台,排全球第五。智能手機市場及供應鏈復甦表現強勁,反映智能手機在日常生活中的重要性,市場需求亦有強勁的基本面支持,估計全球逐步進入疫後環境,需求將繼續增長,市場將加快復甦,相關手機及配件廠將可受惠。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,沒持有上述股份)~
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