《大行報告》匯豐研究調整火電股目標價 首選潤電(00836.HK)
匯豐環球研究發表報告，指由於煤炭現貨價升浪開始，去年末季對內地火電股看法轉趨審慎，在供需關係緊張下今年1月升至每噸約1,000元人民幣歷史高位，並指高煤價屬今年核心風險。該行近期上調全年預測12%至每噸615元人民幣。該行稱，煤電企業購買合約價遠低於現貨價，但其今年上半年每單位燃料成本仍按年顯著上升，特別是今年首季。
該行上調火電股燃料成本預測，並下調其今年盈測介乎3%至8%，並調整目標價，該行下調對華潤電力(00836.HK)目標價由10.8元降至10.2元，維持「買入」評級；調低對華能(00902.HK)目標價由3.3元降至3.1元，維持「持有」評級；該行調高中國電力(02380.HK)目標價，由1.5元升至1.55元，維持「持有」評級。
該行稱，即使煤價自去年末季上升，市場對火電股今年盈測並未有下調。該行料市場對其盈測下調及公司更趨消極的指引將為股價負面催化劑。除了盈利展望惡化外，日益增加的「環境、社會和企業管治」(ESG)考慮亦持續壓抑板塊估值，即使已屆相當於預測2021年市帳率0.3至0.5倍的歷史低位。不過，匯豐研究指，預測今年收益率達8%至13%，及AH股深度折讓仍支持板塊估值。
匯豐研究稱，由於煤炭供應乏彈性，內地部分地區未來需求高峰期或間歇性面對停電。但中國以往結構上面對能源供應過剩。因此，該行料煤電企業難以透過年度、月度合約增加電價。另該行認為，火電企業碳排放標準仍然較寬鬆，對上市煤電企業影響有限，但長遠而言或成為監管風險。
報告補充，偏好有參與可再生能源的企業，可降低對煤價及ESG的敏感度。現時港股可再生能源企業正享受估值重評，料華潤電力(00836.HK)最終可受惠，因它是火電及風電混合企業，行業中僅予華潤電力(00836.HK)「買入」評級。
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