《大行報告》高盛料售氣成本上升對分銷商利潤影響可控 上調新奧、中燃及潤燃目標價 降昆能目標價
高盛發表研究報告,指在冬季,內地燃氣股有兩項主要議題,分別是分銷商售氣成本上升對利潤率影響,以及昆侖能源(00135.HK)倘完成出售北京管道及大連液化天然氣(LNG)資產,對其估值潛在風險回報的影響。
該行指出,據其分析目前售氣成本上升對盈利的下行風險仍可控,燃氣需求強勁增長、冬季合約溢價下降及增加LNG進口帶來紓緩。另該行留意到,倘推進出售資產,昆侖能源的股本回報率潛在下跌,估值相當於預測市帳率0.7至0.8倍。
高盛更新所覆蓋行業股份每股盈測,以反映今年毛利率預測輕微下調、氣體銷量增加預期;重申對新奧能源(02688.HK)和中國燃氣(00384.HK)予「買入」評級,新奧目標價由129元升至140元;中燃目標價由34元升至35元。
該行維持予昆侖能源「中性」評級,因估值基礎下調,目標價由6.7元降至6元,以反映市場對其近期戰略行動對盈利能力帶來不確定性的憂慮。該行注意到公司增加對銷氣的關注及減少關注管道經營或削弱股本回報,除非昆侖採取其他增進股本回報的策略。
高盛另維持華潤燃氣(01193.HK)「中性」評級,目標價則由41元升至43元。
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