You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行報告》中金:內地貨幣政策回歸中性 而非系統性收緊
阿思達克 01-27 15:01
中金發表報告表示,內地1月以來的資金面收緊態勢加劇,昨日短端利率大幅上升,銀行間市場DR001利率上行至2.77%創逾十三個月新高,交易所 GC001利率一度上升202基點報4.99%,錄去年中以來最高。

該行指,從資金供給看,1月以來人行公開市場投放持續較少,相較於去年11月和12月公開市場各2,786億和2,985億人民幣的淨投放量,1月首26日累計淨回籠3,610億人民幣,本月還出現了多次20億至50億人民幣少見的低量逆回購。

中金認為,內地政策操作不代表貨幣政策系統性收緊,短期內利率可能在處於區間波動狀態,除了通脹和經濟增長,樓市走勢及金融風險等也是貨幣政策的重要考量。從經濟增長看,雖然短期受外需提振,去年第四季度GDP 增速較快,但需求追趕供給,經濟不至於出現過熱。復蘇依然不穩固不平衡。2021年通脹總體較為溫和,服務CPI仍較低迷,因低基數而短暫衝高的PPI難致貨幣收緊。加上金融「再平衡」帶來市場自發的「緊信用」,信用利差仍在高位,3至4月即將迎來償債高峰,宏觀政策的態勢或呈現「緊信用 、鬆貨幣、寬財政」的組合。

不過,近期少數城市樓市過熱風險升溫說明貨幣政策也難明顯放鬆,而近日貨幣政策邊際收緊也釋放了繼續防止樓市過熱的信號。雖然針對少數城市樓市升溫更多依賴「一城一策」,但是貨幣政策也要避免明顯寬鬆帶來的加桿杆現像。首季度人行或通過逆回購、TMLF、再貸款、或定向降準等方式來加大投放流動性 ,而全面降準的可能性較低。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account