《大行報告》匯豐料今年港股南向資金流入或擴至8,000億人幣增32% 列出內地互惠基金十大持股
匯豐研究發表報告，指隨著內地互惠基金行業蓬勃發展，內地投資者正湧向估值較便直的港股市場。在樂觀情境下，今年首季南向資金流入料達3,500億元人民幣(下同)，相當於去年末季港股累計股票交易總額(約6.8萬億元)的5.1%；全年料達8,000億元(相當於按年增32%)，專注於稀有性及具價值股份。
報告稱，去年是內地互惠基金行業史上最佳一年，新發行規模逾3萬億元。趨勢亦持續至今年1月，料首季再有139隻基金出台，集資最多7,000億元。該等基金可透過股票通將最多50%資金投入港股。
匯豐稱，在2015至2016年，亦曾出現內地資金大舉進軍港股。不過，今次南下資金來源有別，當年屬未受監管及高槓桿游資炒作，但是次屬2015年中股災後經監管收緊的資金流入。由去年至今，內地股票互惠基金屬主要推手，背後的散戶槓桿程度有限。該行並料南向資金持續流入，投資者在人口老化及海外股票投資較少的情況下，撥出更多資金作退休投資。不過，流入速度或較2015至2016年為溫和，否則或引發潛在監管行動。
報告解釋，內地資金以稀有性及價值為投資主題。稀有性意味互聯網及創新藥企，因為在內地較罕有。價值投資方面，港股估值較A股低水，南向資金集中流向被大幅低估的企業。資金亦向受美國制裁憂慮及當地被退市所影響的本港掛牌中資企業「撈底」。舉例，南向資金瞄準了在美國被退市的三大中資電訊商。
匯豐進一步稱，搜出參與港股投資的內地十大互惠基金的十大持股(以市值計)，包括騰訊(00700.HK)、美團(03690.HK)、港交所(00388.HK)、小米(01810.HK)、安踏(02020.HK)、頤海國際(01579.HK)、比亞迪(01211.HK)、藥明生物(02269.HK)、思摩爾(06969.HK)、申洲國際(02313.HK)。
該行亦列出過去一個月南向資金流入最多的十大港股，包括騰訊、中移動(00941.HK)、中海油(00883.HK)、中芯國際(00981.HK)、美團、小米、港交所、思摩爾、中電信(00728.HK)及聯通(00762.HK)。
匯豐進一步列出南向資金持倉最重十大港股，包括騰訊、建行(00939.HK)、美團、工行(01398.HK)、小米、匯控(00005.HK)、中移動、中芯、港交所及舜宇(02382.HK)。詳見另表。
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