中國平安(02318.HK):“開門紅“產品強勢可期,維持“增持”評級,目標價114.68港元
機構:野村證券
評級:增持
目標價:114.68港元
盈利預測基本維持不變,預計 2021 財年新業務價值將強勁反彈
我們預計 2020/21/22 財年中國平安壽險的新業務價值(NBV)同比增速分 別為-28%/+19%/+17%,反映出 2020 財年新冠疫情後弱於預期的復甦態勢和 2021 財年後的強勁反彈。2020 年前 11 個月的壽險首年保費收入同比下挫 11%(2020 上半年:-11%),其中 11 月單月同比下滑 10%(2020 年三季度:-8%)。具體來看,個人業務首年保費收入同期累計下降 15%,意味着 11 月單月同比下降 17%(2020 年三季度:-12%),低於我們的預期。在 2020 年末壽險業務改革完成後,我們相信 2021 財年新業務價值有望實現更強的復甦。此外,我們預計 2021 財年開年的首年保費收入將錄得同比20%的高速增長。
我們預計2020/21/22 財年中國平安財險的保費收入同比增速分別為 7.5%/4.0%/12.0%。考慮到車險改革的影響,我們預計同期車險保費收入同比增速為+1.5%/-4.9%/5.3%(參見《中國平安(2318.HK)重估壽險復甦進程及車險業務改革》,2020 年 11 月 24 日)。得益於車險行業龍頭集中度的持續提升,我們認為平安車險的市佔率將明顯提升(從 2019 財年的 23.8%升至 2022 財年的 26.8%)。我們預計 2020/21/22 財年的綜合賠付率將分別為 99.2%/98.8%/99.3%。
結合對平安銀行盈利預測的調整,我們上調 20/21/22 財年税後利潤(OPAT)預測 1.3%/2.2%/3.1%,並預計這三年期間中國平安 OPAT 將實現3%/12%/14%的增長。
小幅上調目標價 0.9%至 114.68 港元,隱含 13.0%上行空間,維持增持評 級。
我們小幅上調分部估值法下的目標價 0.9%至 114.68 港元。具體調整如下:1)上調平安銀行目標價 13%至 19.71 元;2)按市值對中國平安持有的平安好醫生、金融壹賬通和陸金所進行估值;3)基於上述因素對保險業務預測的微調。我們的目標價較當前價格隱含 13.0 上行空間,並維持增持評級。公司當前股價對應 2021 財年的 PEV 約 1.1 倍。我們的目標價基於以下兩部分假設:1)平安壽險 1.6 倍調整後 P/EV、平安財險 1.8 倍 P/EV;2)根據當前目標價,我們給予中國平安持有的平安銀行股份(58%)3830 億人民幣的估值;計入平安好醫生(中國平安持有 41%股份,市值 1030 億港元)、金融壹賬通(中國平安持有 37%股份,市值 80 億美元)、陸金所(中國平安持有 41%股份,市值 350 億美元)當前市價對應的估值,並運用最新一輪融資所對應的市值估價平安健康科技(未上市,中國平安持有 39%股份,估算市值 88 億美元)。
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