丘钛科技(01478.HK)：2020年出货量数据点评，给予“买入”评级
机构：东北证券
评级：买入
事件：
公司近期公布2020年12月主营产品销售数量数据，单月摄像头模组出货量3,720万件，同比下降1.3%，指纹识别模组出货量1,030万件，同比增长6.3%。
摄像头模组全年销售数量合计3.92亿件，同比下滑3.34%。受疫情下手机出货量下滑及手机供应链中重要零部件供货短缺影响，公司全年摄像头模组出货量3.92亿件，同比下滑3.34%。其中3200万像素及以上的摄像头模组出货量约1亿件，占摄像头模组出货量的26%，高于公司此前25%的出货指引。我们预计2021年手机零部件供应链将逐步恢复供应能力，摄像头模组销量将回到正轨。公司布局高端制造领域，在光学防抖、多倍变焦、潜望式等多方面加大研发投入，随着市场对手机模组配置需求的提升，公司在高阶摄像头模组出货量上仍有较大提升空间。
指纹模组全年销售数量合计0.92亿件，同比下滑9.74%。受疫情下手机出货量下滑及手机供应链中重要零部件供货短缺影响，公司全年指纹模组出货量0.92亿件，同比下滑9.74%。其中屏下指纹模组出货量0.45亿件，占指纹模组出货量的49%。屏下指纹模组出货量较去年有所下滑，我们认为与超薄屏下指纹渗透率不及预期有关。指纹识别作为手机移动支付和安全解锁应用方面的技术，已经成为中高端手机的重要配置。公司目前已覆盖全球主要安卓智能手机品牌客户，随着手机销量回暖，指纹模组销售数量预计将恢复增长。
车载摄像头模组、AIoT未来可期。受益ADAS渗透率提升，每辆车装配的摄像头数量大幅增加，公司与车厂长期保持良好合作关系，我们预计在ADAS需求的爆发下，公司销量将持续增长。此外，随着5G的快速发展，用户对AIoT人机交互的需求加大，摄像头作为机器的眼睛，应用领域广泛。公司大力布局该领域，市场份额有望持续提高。
给予“买入”评级。我们预计2020-2022年EPS为0.63/0.83/0.92元，对应0.74/0.98/1.08港元，对应PE为17.91/13.74/12.38倍，参考公司历史PE中枢，给予公司2021年20倍PE，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。
风险提示：产品销量不及预期，行业景气度下行，盈利预测不达预期。
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