大摩:料上季澳門賭企EBITDA2.4億美元 今年全年64億美元
摩根士丹利發表研究報吿,預計去年第四季澳門賭企除息税折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)為2.4億美元,較去年首季的1億美元高,主要是由於營運成本下降及收入組人合改善。行業去年第三季日均營運支出按年跌38%,估計第四季的跌幅相若。該行又預計,去年第四季貴賓廳佔整體總博彩收入21%,而首季則為42%;估計第四季貴賓廳收入按年跌83%,中場收入僅跌62%。
該行估計,除了澳博(0880.HK)之外,其他賭企去年第四季均錄EBITDA。銀河娛樂(0027.HK)及金沙中國(1928.HK)料受惠於非博彩EBITDA,特別是零售業務,旗下度假村內許多奢侈品商店的零售額在10月錄增長。
由於去年第四季的EBITDA較低,市場可能會下調今年首季及今年全年的EBITDA預測。該行料今年賭企EBITDA為64億美元,佔2019年水平的65%,並認為兩個數字都有下行空間。行業現價為2022年預測企業價值(EV/EBITDA)11倍,相信在2021年盈利修訂觸底前,相關股份可能維持疲弱。
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