植耀辉: 拆解雅迪(01585.HK)长升原因
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，汽车股近月走势之强令投资者相当惊讶，佼佼者当然是Tesla(TSLA.US)，去年至今累积升幅达到870%；本地电动车概念股比亚迪(01211.HK)亦有极佳表现，累升554%，但以升幅计原来雅迪控股(01585.HK)表现更佳，其股价自去年至今累升达810%，市值亦已达到531.3亿元。不过其吸引笔者「眼球」之原因，在於上周即使有股东大折让减持股份之消息，但股价当时未见影响，股价更不跌反升，加上去年表现如此惊人，值得去研究一下。
先跟各位介绍雅迪业务。该公司主要从事电动车及相关配件开发、制造及销售，单看业务可能大家已知其炒作原因在於「电动车」三只字，不过事实上雅迪生产之电动车与大家想像如比亚迪所生产之种类不同，属於双轮电动踏板车及电动自行车而已。尽管如此，但近年相关范畴亦受惠国策因素。内地於2019年4月宣布《电动自行车全安技术规范》，新标准对车速、重量、外形、电池、电池等关键指标均有严格规定，不符合规定之电动自行车均不得销售。据内地研究机构统计，2019年内地电动自行车数量达到3亿辆，新规定所带来之换车潮数量将至少达1亿辆。
在此背景下，雅迪便成为其中一间最受惠公司。在新规范出台下，市场参与者由过往1,000多家减少至现时700家左右；而雅迪在内地电动双轮车市场份额位居首位，市占率约16.7%；集团近年业绩亦相当不俗，2016至2019年营收由66.62亿增至119.68亿元人民币。去年上半年收入更同比急升87.5%。所以雅迪炒上，除「电动车」概念外，亦有其自身的一些「卖点」。另外，北水过往亦时有炒作，值得一提的是，市占率仅次於雅迪之爱玛科技亦即将於A股登场，这亦成为短期炒作之部分原因。
虽然行业前景似乎有不少憧憬，但亦非全无隐忧。无疑新标准令入门门槛有所提高，「高端化」亦是近年业界之共同口号，不过消费者仍倾向「价廉物美」，价格才是最重要之考虑；而且，由於各品牌产品差异性不明显，故不惜豪掷重金於宣传上，雅迪便曾邀请电影「狂野时速」系列之男演员Vin Diesel作为全球品牌形象大使。所以相关产业利润率一向偏低，雅迪去年上半年毛利率及纯利率便分别只得18.2%及5.1%。
另一挑战则来自共享概念。去年哈罗出行、青桔及美团(03690.HK)三大共享单车品牌均加大力度於共享电单车上，某程度上亦会降低消费者购买电动车意欲。
所以笔者结论是，雅迪股价过去一年急升有其原因，不过行业前景似乎有相当变数之余，早前股东高位减持亦应抱一定戒心，加上Tesla股价近期有所转弱，故暂不建议大家高追。
(笔者为证监会持牌人，并未持有相关股份)~
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