《大行報告》大摩今年最偏好創新藥企及生科股 首選藥明生物、翰森製藥及信達生物 調整目標價
摩根士丹利發表研究報告，隨著內地政府決心削減成本及激勵創新，內地醫藥行業門檻提升，以期在國際層面競爭。該行料三家公司將受惠政策趨勢，今年行業首選藥明生物(02269.HK)、翰森製藥(03692.HK)及信達生物(01801.HK)，並調整多家醫藥股目標價(見另表)。
報告稱，去年內地醫藥股升62%(據MSCI數據)，屬繼資訊科技板塊(77%)外第二佳。不過，升幅集中於創新藥企業、生物科技股、CDMO(醫藥合同定製研發生產)、醫療科技及互聯網醫藥；同期分銷商、仿製藥企業、傳統中藥股表現則乏善可陳。即使行業估值去年未大幅改變(介乎預測市盈率22至24倍)，細分板塊之間估值差異巨大。具質素藥廠及CDMO企業估值高達逾50倍至逾100倍，惟分銷商及部分中藥股估值僅相當於預測市盈率僅單位數。內地政策持續推動行業創新及升級。透過中央採購及醫保談判(NRDL)進行更合理的報銷預算分配，將添壓企業，促進創新及在具定價能力下提供差異化產品。更甚者，內地藥廠必須重視創新，及在全球競爭上取勝。
大摩表示，隨著報銷直接導向創新藥及跨國藥廠帶來競爭，該行最偏好創新藥企及生物科技股。大摩料翰森製藥(創新藥)及信達生物(生物科技)可跑贏大市，主因其渠道產品可在全球競爭；兩企在全球專利交易上亦見進取。其次，該行喜好研發服務藥企，最喜好藥明生物，主因其全球擴張及兩倍於行業增長。
報告補充，新冠疫情加快互聯網醫藥開拓，偏好阿里健康(00241.HK)及平安好醫生(01833.HK)。另大摩稱，醫療科技採用本地化為邁瑞醫療(300760.SZ)及微創醫療(00853.HK)帶來崛起機遇，但集中採購帶來的價格削減仍屬拖累因素。該行料降價壓力對仿製藥廠的影響將延續至今年。
大摩指出，對醫藥分銷行業的看法逐漸穿轉向正面。隨著直銷藥房專利藥增加分銷，料國藥控股(01099.HK)及上海醫藥(02607.HK)作為龍頭企業市佔擴大將可變現。最後，在現時嚴謹報銷預算下中醫藥股仍被邊緣化，但一些快速增長的顆粒複方板塊除外，如中國中藥(00570.HK)及雲南白藥(000538.SZ)。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
