郭明錤料iPhone鏡頭兩年內無顯著升級 舜宇光學(02382.HK)受惠蘋果訂單
著名蘋果(AAPL.US)分析員郭明錤發表的報告預期,2022年iPhone鏡頭仍無顯著升級,在具備成本優勢的舜宇光學(02382.HK)擴產後,預測玉晶光的下行風險可能將隨之加劇,若鏡頭產業的升級停滯挑戰無結構性改善,則玉晶光的每股盈利可能在2021與2022年均無顯著成長,甚至會衰退。
他預測大立光為提升產能利用率,將在今年上半年將iPhone中高階鏡頭平均銷售均價降約15-25%,屆時玉晶光的訂單比重、產能利用率與毛利率將直接受到影響,由於玉晶光過度依賴蘋果訂單,故無法找到非蘋果訂單來抵銷價格競爭造成的壓力。
他續指舜宇光學近期股價表現強勁並創歷史新高,回應了該行早前對公司今年出貨iPad 5P鏡頭與iPhone 7P鏡頭之預測,料公司將在2022年擴產Apple鏡頭產能至少50%以上,將進一步加劇對玉晶光的價格競爭壓力。雖舜宇光學在2021年出貨比重仍不高,iPhone 7P廣角鏡頭與iPad 5P鏡頭分別佔約10%與15-20%的出貨比重。他預測若舜宇光學2021年出貨Apple鏡頭順利,則2022年將進一步擴產至少50%以上,屆時大立光與玉晶光將面臨來自具備成本優勢舜宇光學的更激烈價格戰。
他預測未來iPhone主要鏡頭供應商為大立光、玉晶光與舜宇光學,認為玉晶光是主要輸家,大立光近期股價可能承受賣壓但仍具長期投資價值,舜宇光學則可望因Apple訂單而在未來3年內顯著成長。
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