板塊異動 | 物業板塊"揚眉吐氣"，新城悅服務、永升生活服務漲超16%
uSMART盈立智投1月6日消息，週三港股早盤，物業板塊集體"揚眉吐氣"，漲勢如虹，截至10:49分，新城悅服務、永升生活服務漲超16%，保利物業漲超15%，時代鄰裏漲超12%，雅生活服務、金科服務、碧桂園服務、藍光嘉寶服務、銀城生活服務、鑫苑服務、寶龍商業均漲超11%，融創服務、建業新生活漲超10%。
事件：
2021年1月5日，住建部、發改委、銀保監會等十部委發佈《關於加強和改進住宅物業管理工作的通知》，其中鼓勵有條件的物業服務企業向養老、託幼、家政、健康、房屋經紀、快遞收發等領域延伸。
申萬宏源點評：
完善物業費形成機制，鼓勵發展智慧物業服務，維持“看好”評級。新冠疫情下，物業管理的中長期行業價值逐步獲得社會認可，業主體驗感增強有利收繳率提升，快速建立優質品牌利於集中度提升。互聯網企業及專業投資機構頻頻戰略投資主流物業管理公司，顯示物管公司流量經濟概念廣受認可。我們認爲，我國物業管理行業將呈現規模大、增速高的藍海市場，預計2030年末市場規模將高達2-3萬億元，並較目前規模有望翻番。對比海外，我國物業管理行業擁有空間巨大、圍牆屬性、集中度繼承三大獨有特色。目前物管板塊平均估值對應2020/2021PE爲26/18倍，我們維持物業管理行業“看好”評級，維持推薦：碧桂園服務、永升生活服務。
興業證券點評：
高成長高確定性是板塊的主旋律：我們認爲物業管理行業的行業屬性，即存量+增量的發展模式、無重大資本開支、淨現金的財務狀況、穩定的派息分紅，決定了行業的估值下限。而物管公司的管理服務水平，物業的質量以及業績增長的潛力和確定性決定了估值的上限。截止目前港股物管板塊平均估值對應2020/2021年30.7/20.0XPE。物業管理行業受益於4大規模紅利，板塊正處於從1到N的快速拓展期，而增值服務正經歷從0到1的拓荒期。物管公司經營穩健，現金流健康，不受行業週期性波動影響。行業首選永升生活服務、寶龍商業、碧桂園服務、新城悅服務、綠城服務，推薦關注時代鄰裏、雅生活服務、保利物業。
國盛證券點評：
隨着上市物業公司數量增加，我們認爲未來行業機會將聚焦於板塊龍頭及具備良好成長性的公司。我們從兩條主線選股：1）住宅物管推薦碧桂園服務、永升生活服務、金科服務、保利物業、綠城服務、新城悅服務及中海物業；2）商業運營標的建議關注華潤萬象生活及寶龍商業。
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