花旗料受疫苗带动今年环球GDP增长5% 低息环境将维持至2022年底
花旗银行投资策略及环球财富策划部主管黄(柏)宁出席网上发布会时指,疫情令经济活动停摆,拖累去年首季有极深跌幅,但环球央行及各地政府十分果断大幅度放水、减息,带动经济到第二、三季市场现反弹,而很多经济体系都开始有复苏趋势,惟理想的情况出现差异,亚洲地区疫情相对受控,有一定程度的经济活动重启,而欧美等地在年底虽仍有多波疫情,不过受惠金融政策果断等亦令市场有反弹。
他认为今次经济停摆後,2021年初疫情将继续为经济带来挑战,社交距离较密切的行业或仍疫延,不过到今年中旬受惠更多有效疫苗面世及大规模生产,下半年全球经济料恢复急剧扩张,料今年环球GDP增长将达5%,而通胀则为2.2%。
疫情後的新经济周期,货币政策保持宽松,而政府及央行推出史无前例的宽松措施,缓解了去年较早时间因日常活动停摆造成的经济冲击,而主要政府财政刺激措施规模达12万亿美元,约占环球经济总值的12%,比雷曼事件时更厉害,现时亦未见有压力改变宽松政策,料联储局将维持低息至2022年底。他续指,疫苗消息带动美国十年期债息反弹至0.9厘水平,估计市场将继续消化疫情消息,并憧憬2021年复苏,料十年期债息或进一步升至1.25厘。
在短期部署复苏方面,他指出疫情周期股去年累跌35%,认为这些行业估值少有地吸引,相信随着疫苗及治疗方法越趋方熟,资金或换马至周期性股份,到疫情受控後,原本最受打击的行业会有更大反弹空间。
不过,他强调疫情仍有变数,或会构成显着、急速的经济风险,对消费反弹步伐带来不明朗因素,而疫苗或治疗进展与经济复苏未必呈直线关系,大规模群组接种後副作用个案或增加,或为市场带来风险。(el/a) ~
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