玻璃制造Ⅱ行业深度分析：玻璃行业研究方法，维持“持有”行业评级
机构：广发证券
评级：持有
核心观点：
玻璃产品大家族和产品分类。玻璃分为平板玻璃和玻璃制品两大类；平板玻璃按照生产工艺主要为浮法玻璃和压延玻璃（压花玻璃），浮法玻璃目前是平板玻璃最主要品种，广泛用于建筑、汽车、家具、家电、电子、光伏等领域；压延玻璃（压花玻璃）主要用于光伏和建筑。
平板玻璃需求构成和跟踪分析。浮法玻璃下游需求房地产和汽车分别约占70%和20%，房地产和汽车行业景气度决定了浮法玻璃需求景气度，压延玻璃下游需求主要为光伏，光伏行业景气度决定了压延玻璃需求景气度。同时还需考虑一些结构性因素对需求影响。
玻璃生产和赛道特点。一是平板玻璃原片是重资产行业，必须保持连续生产，产品库存可以存放一段时间。二是浮法玻璃和压延玻璃技术门槛并不高，但不同企业运营能力差异很大。三是特殊材料的玻璃技术门槛非常高。四是玻璃原片和深加工生产可以分开，但两个环节都贡献较大附加值，产业链一体化运营更有优势。
玻璃成本构成。一是原材料（约占生产成本40%），主要是纯碱和硅砂，二是能源（约占生产成本40%），主要是电力和燃料。不同玻璃企业生产用的燃料系统都不一样，所以导致玻璃能源成本的差异一方面来自燃料系统的选择，另一方面来自于工艺和规模优势的差异。行业目前越来越规范使得优质企业成本优势在持续显现。
如何跟踪研究玻璃行业供给。玻璃行业的供给受三大变量影响——新建产能、冷修停产产能、复产产能。2017年以来，浮法玻璃供给持续好转，体现为浮法玻璃价格持续高景气，越来越“水泥化”。根据《水泥玻璃行业产能置换实施办法（修订稿）》（征求意见稿），政策拟规定光伏压延玻璃新建产能可不制定产能置换方案，未来需要重点关注新建产能投放节奏，同时光伏压延玻璃新增供给也会受到两个因素制约。
玻璃企业的核心竞争力体现在什么地方。一是产业链一体化，二是成本控制力，三是产品高端化；信义和旗滨具备较好的综合竞争力。?玻璃行业格局演变。浮法玻璃行业正朝着集中度持续提升的方向发展，压延玻璃行业将迎来变局，具备核心竞争力的优质企业将成为引领行业的综合性龙头，信义和旗滨双龙头格局初步形成。
玻璃股价驱动因素。短期看玻璃价格，中长期看公司成长性。
投资建议。我们认为信义和旗滨具备较强的综合竞争力、行业龙头较大的发展潜力；我们看好旗滨集团，建议关注信义玻璃和信义光能。
风险提示。报告提炼的8个方面没有全面涵盖玻璃行业重要变量；行业政策发生重大变化；企业经营能力发生重大变化。
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