華潤萬象生活(01209.HK):“物管+商管“稀缺標的,競爭站位突出,維持“增持”評級
機構:國金證券
評級:增持
投資邏輯
“物管+商管”稀缺標的,競爭站位突出。物業服務美譽度高,商管實力行業頂尖。依託於母公司華潤置地強勁實力支持,以及輕資產商管能力輸出,內生增長成長性、確定性高。IPO 後在手現金充足,外延併購將助力增長。
物管機會與挑戰並存,商管結構性機會突出。1)物管:行業風口期,高增長、高回報、高分紅、高現金儲備;但,增長存在瓶頸,提價困難、盈利空間有限;增值服務成色一般,成熟模式待探索。依託於母公司的高增長難以為繼。2)商管:存量不動產供過於求,同質化問題嚴重。優秀的主動管理能力能夠拉開資產差距,稀缺性凸顯,輕資產管理能力輸出空間巨大。
全業態綜合服務標杆,商管能力數一數二。區別於傳統住宅物管企業,公司具備國內最高品質的綜合體物管與商管運營服務能力。物管美譽度高,收繳率、單方收費等指標優秀。商管能力卓越,旗下萬象城是唯一能與港資匹敵的內資品牌,業績出眾、投資回報率遠超行業平均水平;手握廣泛且高端的租户資源網絡,為眾多高標準嚴要求的國際奢侈品所認可,能力護城河深。
母公司實力強勁,支撐高確定性成長。三條紅線出台背景下,房企規模增長放緩。母公司華潤置地財務健康,項目優質,增長穩健,支撐公司高確定性成長。招股書顯示,母公司未來 3-4 年將交付住宅物業、購物中心商管分別為 3890 萬平米、452 萬平米;不考慮外拓,購物中心商管在管面積將接近翻倍。同時寫字樓商管於 2020H2 開始計入營收,未來將成為新的增長極。
優質商管平台,模式佳,外拓潛力大。1)抗週期性。商管業務為輕資產模 式,避免商業資產價格波動帶來的影響。2)具備成長性。對於購物中心商管服務,管理收入與購物中心零售額呈正相關,較物管成長性強。3)擴張速度快。輕資產模式,只要管理能力跟得上,擴張複製的速度快。行業大背景下,我們看好公司優質商管平台能力輸出,三方外拓提供內生增長動能。
投資建議
我們預計公司 2020-2022 年 EPS 為 0.30 元、0.63 元、0.81 元。首次覆蓋,給予“增持”評級,給予 2022E 年 45x PE,對應目標價 36.57 港元。
風險提示
地產行業調控超預期、公司業務外拓進展不順利、外拓項目侵蝕毛利率。

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