信义玻璃(00868.HK)利润预增20-35%，景气延续，维持“审慎增持”评级，目标价19.88港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：审慎增持
投资要点
信义玻璃发布盈利预告，2020 年度的纯利预期较 2019 年度增加 20%至 35%，利润区间为 53.7-60.5 亿港元，对应下半年利润区间为 39.9-46.6 亿港元，同比增70-98%。
集团盈利能力大幅提升，主要由于：
1）浮法玻璃于 2020 年下半年的平均销售价格大幅上升，以人民币计价的全国浮 法玻璃均价环比增 20%，同比增 15%； 2）浮法玻璃销量于 2020 年下半年的高增长，信义玻璃于 Q4 新投产北海、张家港合计 4 条浮法玻璃生产线，新增产能 2900T/D，占运行产能的 19%； 3）及信义光能的盈利贡献。信义光能公告盈利预增 75%-95%，信义玻璃持有信义光能 23.66%的股本，联营信义光能可增厚信义玻璃利润 10.0-11.1 亿港元。
我们的观点：
12月16日，工信部出台《水泥玻璃行业产能置换实施办法（修订稿）》，新建光伏玻璃产能不再需要产能置换，但光伏玻璃也不得再转回建筑用浮法玻璃，浮法玻璃沿用产能置换办法，环境敏感区置换比例为 1.25：1，其它地区置换比例为 1：1。我们认为，光伏玻璃产能指标有序放开后，浮法转产超白的逻辑或将被打破，投资逻辑再次回到地产投资链上，11 月地产新开工和竣工面积同比分别为 2.4%（前值 4.5%）和 6.1%（前值 8.5%），地产投资链逐渐向后端倾斜，这也符合三道红线后地产商的降杠杆策略，2021 年竣工的确定性依然强劲，玻璃需求有支撑而新增供给受限，浮法玻璃的景气度持续性也有望延续。
我们上调信义玻璃 2020 -2022 年盈利预测分别为 55.39 亿元、66.59 亿元、69.96亿元，同比增速分别为 23.7%、20.2%和 5.1%，目标价上调至 19.88 港元，“审慎增持”评级。当前股价对应 2021E 的 PE 为 11.3 倍，处于历史上的估值中枢水平。
风险提示：需求下滑、海外扩张不及预期、反倾销风险、汇率风险。
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