匯豐私銀:明年經濟復甦 恆指上望29,970點
匯豐私人銀行董事總經理及亞洲區首席市場策略師范卓雲於網上記者會上表示,預測中國今年全年經濟仍將錄得2.4%增長,相對環球各國則料倒退。明年中國經濟增長料反彈至7.5%,本港亦將受惠,明年經濟增長料可達4.3%,今年本港經濟則料倒退7.9%。環球經濟料今年倒退4.1%,明年增長4.4%。
她表示,現時該行預測是基於新型肺炎疫苗於明年普及,並有效控制疫情,加上環球維持零息政策及推行刺激經濟措施。該行明年恆指目標29,970點,國指目標11,950點。
該行看好美股及亞洲股市,包括中國、南韓及新加坡。另外亦看好新興市場債券,尤其是亞洲債市。該行增持中國債券,其中包括美元及人民幣計價債券,料明年總回報率可達11.5%,中國高收益債券回報亦可達10%至15%。
范卓雲並指,經濟不明朗因素包括疫苗成效、控制疫情進展,及地緣政治等因素,因此投資多元化仍相當重要,該行偏好黃金作為分散投資風險工具,對金價明年底目標1,900美元,亦傾向另類投資如私募股票及信貸基金。
匯豐私人銀行董事及北亞首席市場策略師何偉華表示,該行看好結構性增長板塊,包括網上消費、科技及電訊傳媒,另外亦看好醫療保健板塊。他又指,反壟斷法對科網行業正面,因有助行業釐清監管要求,短期而言則或對行業表現造成波動。
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