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《大行报告》花旗料中国今年实质GDP增长2.1% 估明年增长8.2%
阿思达克 12-09 14:38
花旗发表的研究报告,料中国实质GDP将由今年的2.1%,升至明年8.2%,并料2021年将有规模较大的财政紧缩政策,而货币宽松政策亦将退场。

该行估计明年首季增长将高达16%,主要因为今年同期基数较低,而之後於第二至第四季将逐步减慢至8%、6%及5%,主要因为基数较高及势头放慢,该行估计2021年家庭消费将是主要的增长引擎,并估计零售销售将由今年的-4.1%强劲反弹至按年增长16.5%。另外受惠疫苗推出,服务业或会在明年第二季尾完全复苏。不过该行认为基建投资及房地产投资或会放慢,主要因为料财政紧缩及房地产融资收紧等将带来影响。投资对GDP增长的贡献料将减小0.5个百分点至2.3个百分点。而在外贸方面,该行则对明年外贸增长谨慎但有信心。

该行认为人行的疫情相关货币政策将退场,并估计2021年将有显着的财政紧缩,另外亦预计人民币升值的情况将会在明年持续。(el/u) ~

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