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植耀輝: 「特」式狙擊中海油受累 港股續見反覆
阿思達克 12-02 11:54
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美國總統特朗普動作多多已不是甚麼新聞,不過最近他卻儼然化身成為「股壇狙擊手」,皆因繼上月中旬宣布將中移動(00941.HK)等31間企業列為制裁黑名單後,本周初又有消息指會將制裁名單增至35間,當中便包括中芯國際(00981.HK)及中海油(00883.HK)。消息一出即時震散中海油。過去兩個交易日其累積跌幅便達到18%。

有朋友便問筆者這是否一個撈底機會。按道理,即使被納入黑名單,對公司業務發展亦不會帶來實際影響,所以純以此角度看,確有一定值博率。問題是美資在未來一段時間內將被迫減持,意味相關股份未來一段時間沽壓沉重,所以中短線跑輸大市機會仍相當高。何況筆者對油價看法一向也相當審慎,所以博短線技術反彈尚可,惟一定要嚴守止蝕止賺策略。

另外,亦跟大家簡單回顧一下11月全球股市表現,原先大家(包括筆者)頗擔心美國大選會增添市場波動,但最終不只美股創新高,歐洲股市亦創下歷來11月最佳表現。相比之下,恆指11月亦累升9.3%表現仍算不俗,只是年初至今,恆指仍錄得跌幅,跑輸中美主要指數。

至於餘下一個月能否「翻底」,筆者暫不抱太大寄望,雖然疫苗研發令市場信心大增,只是疫情能否得到遏制仍有待觀察,而且較關鍵的變數仍是特朗普,其在餘下一個月恐怕仍會有更多行動,包括進行更多針對中國之措施,而且一旦黑名單「陸續有來」,對大市氣氛亦肯定會有更大打擊。

(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)~

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